Back in September 2020, myself and a couple of friends discussed whether or not it was worthwhile for Joe Biden to debate Donald Trump. While the former president and clown prince of crime’s theatrics would surely play off the televised medium more fancifully, we felt it was important for Biden to take a stance in establishing normality again. Now, four year later, things have changed. The once-challenger, now incumbent has added much clout to his nickname “Sleepy Joe”, thanks to a number of recent bewildering public appearances, whilst his opponent has racked up an array of criminal charges, already convicted of one. Neither prospect is exactly gleaming in the eyes of the public, with a recent CBS poll showing Trump leading by just 1%. Will Thursday’s debate change much? Given how polarised the country has gotten, probably not. Nevertheless, I thought it worth exploring anyways for the heck of it.

Firstly, we should acknowledge how two rules, crucially, seem to suit Biden more: that there will be no audience and mics will be muted when the other person is speaking. Lame. On the other hand, there will be no pre-written notes either, which is fine for Trump since many of his best zingers seem to have come out of the moment, particularly in 2016. So if he can produce a couple of new greatest hits (in line with “weak-sauce Jeb” and “I should’ve won [the Emmy]”, then Biden may be in trouble. His material simply isn’t as entertaining. Having said that, we didn’t see as much of that as in 2020, when Trump’s maverick status had started to veer from hilarious if dumb to deranged if occasionally hilarious.

Supposing “the issues” come up in this debate, the candidates will likely spar on inflation, immigration, Roe v. Wade, and funding for Ukraine, among other matters. (Undoubtedly, the culture wars will seep into the mix too, since both sides see each other as an existential treat to the country vis a vis the fight for democracy, lawlessness, the far left, and so on.) Biden will make the case for an economic success story, which he can back up with GDP and unemployment figures. Trump will argue inflation has been a disaster for the country and that people’s wages travelled a lot further four years ago (from the book of Reagan). In tandem with this, he may throw his lot in with the Republicans questioning how much money should be put into defending Ukraine. Then, he may move onto the border. It depends how much time is wasted and what questions are asked (maybe that doesn’t even matter).

Biden will be on the defensive against a range of broad accusations and probable lies. Since perception becomes reality and the visual spectacle matters as much (if not more) than the content of what they’re saying, combatting them one by one may not prove the most effective strategy. Debates have swung one way or another for a variety of reasons, from JFK wearing makeup in 1960 to George HW Bush checking his watch during a question in 1992. Given the narrative that the president’s not “all there”, he needs to be as sharp as possible and to the point without any stammering or lost gazes.

Should Biden choose to hammer on the point of Trump’s multiple legal troubles, he will of course have to answer for his son, Hunter. Many people will of course come to the lazy false equivalency that both candidates are mixed up in corruption and so “it’s a wash”, but to Biden’s credit, he never tried to intervene or stir the legal course of action with regards Hunter’s mishaps. Perhaps that can be used to his advantage. Perhaps he can point to the kind of accountability he and his family take, which Trump has tried to elude and undermine. Perhaps that will work…. Though perhaps not.

One of the main issues Biden has returned to in his case against Trump is the January 6th Capitol Insurrection. This will likely be a talking point which he can exploit by asking Trump if he will concede the election should he lose again. I’m not sure what Trump’s strategy will be here, other than to deflect to other matters and emphasise the bias of the mainstream media against him. He will have to try wiggle out of it somehow and Biden, in turn, will have to keep the spotlight on this. But again, since everything’s so politicised and since three and a half years have passed since, this also may not matter much.

If I were to advise, without any moral culpability, I’d tell Trump to needle the president on the devastating effects of inflation on the average person and crime in America. For Biden, I would advise trying to keep up his 2020 performance, while pushing Trump on January 6th and how disastrous his first term was, thus resulting in him “losing” (emphasise that word) the last time. At this point, I predict a Biden victory in November (if a lesser one than before). While Trump’s percentage lead is not to be dismissed, he has come down in the last couple of months and come election time, he’ll have been raked through the fire a lot more than he has been the last couple of years, in which he’s been uncharacteristically absent from the spotlight. (Relatively speaking.)