With less than a month now to the election, the forecast remains murky. Depending which poll you look at, either candidate could be nabbing it. Some say Kamala Harris has a 3% lead. Others say Trump’s support is underestimated. Many argue it will simply come down to the battleground states (particular Pennsylvania). Yada yada.

It’s become so difficult to predict a US election accurately for a number of reasons; top of my list being the polarised nature of the media. It thrives on biases and in recent years has escalated to caricature-like proportions. Indeed, till CNN’s (still spliced) “60-minute” feature on the Vice President, I felt like I was witnessing the most softball interviews ever, bordering on propaganda. That is not to say Trump’s not got his own echo chamber; indeed, he would not exist if not for them. But the liberals are getting their hands dirty too and despite my preference for her eventual victory, it is worth critiquing the “Kamala Wave”. If just for pure honesty’s sake.

First, there’s an element of contrivance. Not wholly, but in comparison to say… Obama’s rise in 2008, it feels like the carpet has been rolled out for her. If we cast our minds back to the 2020 election, Kamala had an early surge in popularity before dropping off after the early debates. Months later, she became Biden’s running mate, on the basis / accusations of picking (pandering with) a female VP. The ticket won and she largely remained in the background, with some coverage (then criticism) given to her handling of immigration and the border. Indeed, as Biden’s advancing years began to show, many wondered whether he was being stubborn or doing what was necessary, in refusing to step down and hand the baton over to her. Kamala’s approval ratings weren’t great, even at the start of this year. (Even by June, really.) To many, Biden still seemed the more sensible prospect. Then that debate happened and the emergency klaxons started ringing. Sleepy Joe had to go.

Now the story being written is that Joe Biden’s decision to drop out of the race in July 2024 was a “courageous” and “selfless” one, bordering on George Washington-like sacrifice for the country. This has been one of the most embarrassing declarations on chat shows and interviews with Kamala Harris (if not necessarily by her). Let’s not forget he insisted on staying the course even after that debate, quite adamantly, until people like Nancy Pelosi “may or may not have” held discussions with him. To be fair, he may have eventually concluded what others had (with respect to his chances) but let’s face it, the Democrats played this one beautifully (at least from the point on of assuring he couldn’t win). They ousted him and got Kamala in at the perfect moment.

Biden endorsed Kamala and everyone promptly forgot he was president. Then a range of support from high-profile figures and past presidents came in. Any notions of an open-convention were quickly swept aside in the fervour of this tide. And just as Trump’s very recent assassination attempt faded quickly into the background, a star was born. It was Kamala Harris’ time to shine and in the weeks that followed, there weren’t many questions to darken the mood. 

Admittedly, there’s some sourness to this coverage; necessary but not indicative of the full picture. While Kamala is no Obama, there is some genuine encouragement to be found in the camps of supporters who believe she could be their first female president, without that encroaching as the only quality she brings to the table. She’s not a great orator or interviewee but she’s also not clueless, as some of her detractors would put it. She’s relatively engaged and relatable (i.e. no Hillary Clinton), given the right environment (see her interview with Howard Stern). She’s also able to handle Trump, as evidenced by the first (and probably only) debate they had. And she made a good choice in running mate, in Tim Walz. Most importantly for the Democrats and her supporters, she’s rode this wave to maximum potential. Unfortunately, October may prove a different kettle of fish.

Kamala’s opponents believe her greatest weakness lies in facing the media (via tough interviews). While Trump reels off a litany of bizarre anecdotes and conjectures, he comes across… stridently? Or at least confident. Kamala has been somewhat meandering, in her rare appearances.Part of the problem stems from her promotion of an image of change and not repeating the past. Her calls for action on any issue are met with derisive snorts that “she and Biden” could act right now. Of course, neither candidate’s alien to the White House but as the closing weeks clock in, Kamala will have to make sure she’s distinguished just enough from the (actually still) president. With the media’s always-fervent dreams of an “October surprise” (e.g. Comey reopening the investigation to Hillary’s emails last minute), their general flair for dramatics, and the last rounds of public and world events in concurrence, the narrative could be spun again. For while riding the Kamala Wave has proved fruitful for many so far, boredom can quickly set in. And I’m afraid that’s the level we’re at.