Or “The Washington Walrus’ Guide & Insight to Super Tuesday”.
What makes Super Tuesday so super? And why have we, The Washington Walrus, elected to add another “super” into the mix? Yes, this was no fortuitous matter. For you see, while the media and pundits have been endlessly speculating on the ramifications of the debates and results from recent primaries/caucuses, the fact of the matter is that everything could go topsy turvy this Tuesday coming. Here’s a few questions we’ve submitted and answered ourselves to shed some light.
What is Super Tuesday?
It’s like the Wrestlemania of the primary season for Republicans and Democrats. Since there’s nothing going on with the former party, the latter will be granted the full glare of the spotlight when 14 states (and the American Samoa caucuses) go up for grabs.
What are these states?
There’s Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.
How many delegates are up for grabs?
A thousand, three hundred and thirty four! To put this in context, 100 have been granted so far (with 54 more shortly as South Carolina is decided) out of a total 3,979. So while it’s not a complete deal breaker, it’s a very strong indicator of where the stars align.
What state has the most?
California with 415.
So should the candidates not put more effort into the likes of California than say, Maine?
Now, now. Maine’s 24 delegates may seem meager in comparison but the little things matter and come the general election, you’ll want to make sure you’ve covered more than just the east and west coast. Hillary learned this the hard way. After all, the electoral college is still a thing.
What is the electoral college?
Ughh… we’ll get to that at another time.
So why is so much emphasis placed on Iowa?
As aforementioned, the media revel in a good post-results analysis and while this may not account for what happens Super Tuesday, it’s important to see who has momentum. Iowa, as the first state, is something of a springboard. When Pete Buttigieg prematurely announced his victory (quite unfairly and somewhat inaccurately), he got the spotlight to shine just a little brighter on him. Sleepy Joe, on the otherhand, with his lack of success, quickly got painted as a candidate in decline.
Who’s leading right now?
Without South Carolina’s results accounted for, Bernie Sanders is leading at the moment with 45 delegates; Mayor Pete’s in 2nd place with 25; Sleepy Joe with 15, Elizabeth Warren with 8, and Amy Klobuchar with 7.
Who’s going to win Super Tuesday?
With a diverse range of states, nobody exactly wins, although a victor will be painted as such. It’s a little hard to call. Bernie Sanders has recently been topping polls nationwide so my money would be on him. This could be a turning point for the trailing Joe Biden however, who’s asserted he has a better chance of winning over Trump supporters and more moderate democrats. Mayor Pete too, is angling this territory whilst Elizabeth Warren’s settled into the gap between Bernie and them. In the end though, it’ll probably be a mix with Pete and Biden (and possibly Warren) hanging on through to the end of March.
What about Bloomberg?
His debate performances thus far have been so terrible that his camp could even do with getting help from Jeb! 2016 (don’t forget the exclamation mark). He has a tonne of money though, so you can’t exactly rule him out.
When exactly will we know who the Democratic nominee is?
The primary season ends in early June, although we should have a good idea by the end of April. Then, of course, there’s the shadowy league of super-delegates to deal with.
What are super-delegates?
Nobody quite knows. It is said they were born from an occult-like, yet beige, experiment in the woods when leading Democratic establishment figures realized they could lose the run of things after several disappointing election results. Actually, we wrote an article back in 2016 about them if you’re interested but what you need to know is that at 775 members (this year), they make up 1/5 of the total delegates and vote after the primary season is over. They’re criticized largely because they can potentially muck up things and could undermine the nomination of, oh let’s say, Bernie Sanders, should he prove problematic to the party’s core members.
When is Super Tuesday?
This Tuesday. We already mentioned this.
Indeed. Any other questions?
Yes, why is this site called the Washington Walrus?
Washington- cause we deal primarily with American politics. Walrus- to suggest a degree of majesty.
We are a week out from the Iowa caucus now and my hopeful 2015 self should be starting to re-emerge in full blossom. Bernie Sanders is leading. Not only there. But in New Hampshire. Momentum is growing. The attacks are escalating on him, yes, but they don’t seem to be having the desired effect. And yet, I’m filled with trepidation when anyone speaks the warm and effervescent words “President Sanders”. I should stop them. I raise a finger as if to offer counsel but I just cant. Hardship must be learned in the battle fields.
I speak metaphorically, of course, with a dash of drama thrown in. After all, the 2016 election wasn’t that long ago. I still remember it well. I remember thinking: Holy cheese and crackers, he could really do it. If social media’s anything to go by, nobody’s voting for Hillary. Like that Kevin Spacey character from House of Cards, she can remain a part of the old Washington tapestry. Kevin Spacey sure does seem like a nice guy in interviews though…
What a fool I was. Not only did it turn out that my liberally-infested social media actually accounted for f- all in the grand scheme of things but apparently Kevin Spacey was also somewhat demanding on film sets. Ah, to have that cocky gleam brought back to my eyes; that penchant for hope that made 2008 a magical year for so many. But alas, it is not 2008. It’s not 2016. It’s 2020. We’ve seen the election of Donald Trump. We’ve seen Brexit come to pass. We’ve seen Bolsanaro turn a blind eye to the Amazon fires in Brazil. We’ve seen similar fires ravage the landscape of Australia and be ignored by political leadership. We’ve seen both Game of Thrones and Star Wars butchered to death. We should probably just give up and hope Sleepy Joe doesn’t make a faux pas in the debate against Donald Trump.
It would be easier that way but even though I’m skeptical of what I read on social media these days, I am hopeful to a reasonable degree. Why? Because somethings have changed for the better since 2016. Hillary may have got the nomination back then but the momentum of the party came from the rallies of Bernie Sanders. Three years later, we were given a wide and much more liberal-leaning Democratic field than we could have imagined, debating the best ways to tackle the climate change crisis without a major candidate’s proposal falling below the Greenpeace B grade. The year before, the Democrats also took the House back with cultural change highlighted in the election of representatives like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar.
Despite becoming a household name, Sanders has had, in some respects, a tougher climb this time around however. Whilst a breath of fresh air in 2015/16, by the time candidates were declaring early last year, he was one of several leftist options. Warren was leading him for the most part. Even, Kamala Harris managed a strong ascent for awhile. Joe Biden, of course, became the presumptive nominee even before he had announced. Plus, the rise of woke culture meant he had to deal with the impossible contention of being “another old white man”; a deal breaker for some people we can’t find a politically correct word for. He also had to account for some volunteers of his sexually harrassing others in 2016, as if he personally shepharded every single person involved in his campaign. The criticism was feeble and his moral consistency never wavered; that’s why he managed to succeed.
In recent weeks, the attacks have gotten more desperate. First, Elizabeth Warren affirmed that in a private meeting in December 2018, Sanders had told her he didn’t believe a woman could be president. She quickly tried to downplay the importance of this, which seemed unfair considering anyone alive would know how big a splash this would make. Sanders outright dismissed the validity of this statement anyways, leaving speculation to hang in the air although to many, Warren’s allegations came across as calculated given her falling poll numbers. Then Hillary Clinton, most calculated of all politicians, said that “nobody likes” Sanders, criticizing the culture around “Bernie Bros” and calling him a “career politician”. This may have boosted his numbers, if anything because a) people saw this as a child-like insult, b) people countered that he had done in excess of 30 rallies for her in 2016 (far more than she did for Obama in 2008), and c) not that many people like her (even Trump probably thought to enter the backlash for a minute before returning to his Mc Cheese Burger). And then, Bernie had the audacity to share a video of popular podcaster Joe Rogan saying he’d “probably” vote for Sanders, which many pointed out, was wrong because Joe Rogan has said made some controversial comments about trans people in the past. Bernie’s team responded by saying that just because he valued the endorsement does not mean he agrees with everything Joe Rogan says. I mean, it was hardly an endorsement from the KKK.
So, the attacks don’t seem to be landing. The latest polls show Bernie leading Buttigieg and Biden in Iowa. There is a good chance he could win the primaries and go onto becoming the Democratic nominee. His battle with Trump will be a whole other challenge thereafter. I don’t believe there are any proper controversies that are worth taking this man down. Unfortunately, I’m not part of the crowd with the loudest voices. Taking into account those cases above, anything seems to be on the cards for a stir. Bernie could lose half of his online California following by dismissing a vegan sandwich as “gross”. Maybe he’ll stand on a grasshopper? Who knows? For now, most people seem to be wising up to the vapid nature of woke criticism but just remember any previous election in US history; things get dirty and viscous. Is it worth discarding an A candidate if we discover a little tip-ex over the minus part that follows? Is it worth jeopardizing the future of the party over impossible standards and loose lips that okay, sometimes say the wrong words (or the right words the wrong way)?
The idea of “President Sanders” is not an impossibility. It is not going to be a walk in the park either. Just as the Republicans have united to win elections when unity was called for, so should the Democrats follow suit. And I mean this too for if Warren or Biden or Buttigieg (somehow) gets the nomination. The hope that defined Obama’s rise twelve years ago was a noble but surface concept; the jaded US of today needs something a little more tangible.
In 1992, Francis Fukuyama’s The End of History… suggested that with the end of the Cold War, humanity had reached an end/block point to the ideological evolution of the 20th century resulting in a broad acceptance of Western liberal democratic values. It was a stupendously general claim to make and one that would be criticised as new problems rose to take the place of the old. But if you take a step back, you’ll see how it is sometimes crucial for our understanding of history to get a broad overview before splitting stones because back then the US had very much started a new chapter of its story.
Hindsight is key for any proper historical evaluation. This article will simply not be able to capture the essence, key themes and ideas of the last decade; at least, not in a lasting way- primarily because, we don’t know what’s going to be important six months from now, let alone in 20 years. New information always becomes available and our core values change with each generation. Obama may be considered left of centre today but for future generations, he could be positively right-wing. Heck, Richard Nixon (the most flabbergasted of Republican presidents) established the Environmental Protection Agency.
Enough dawdling though; this context is important for the purpose of humility but it does not advance the story of the 2010s. What was this decade all about? How did America get from point A to point B? From Hope to Trump.
A New Generation
The millennials came of age this decade. Cast in the shadow of global austerity measures and economic hardship following the Financial Collapse of 2008, theirs (I say theirs, ours really) was a generation fraught with a unique level of anxiety. Many degrees were becoming increasingly less advantageous as job opportunities dried up and the unpaid internship net widened. It’s no wonder why, in this context, a sea of resentment festered; particularly against Boomers who wreaked prosperous opportunities in less tech-automated times whilst ignoring the most pressing issues facing the youth of today. As such, we’ve seen more people living at home for longer, trying for MAs, and adapting to a range of career positions; fluidity and creativity all the more pertinent.
Did the Obama administration fail this generation then by following in Bush’s lead in bailing out the banks? Intentions are certainly important; Obama did save America from the brink of a depression but the seeds of discord were planted in 2009 and the early 2010s. If millennials were to be denied the opportunities of their fathers or grandfathers, they’d at least strive to make their voices heard- which they very much have; for better and worse.
With regards the better, they (and Generation Z) have called for increasingly liberal stances on issues such as student fees, climate change, and health care. Whilst not altogether effective yet, the knocking on the government’s door has been getting louder and louder in recent years. How else would one explain the sensation that is Bernie Sanders; a candidate who probably wouldn’t have prospered this way in the 2000s. In another area, they have been more effective; calling for increased diversity in workplaces, media, and arts. Today’s music, TV, and film scene is a lot less white than it was 20 years ago.
With regards the worse, millennials are often seen (seen, don’t cancel me) as petty and entitled by the older generations (who in turn, have seemingly forgotten their responsibility to rear and guide their children). Is there truth to this? It’s a wild stereotype that’s limited but keeping in mind, the general overview from the intro, I’m inclined to believe that for all the good done with social media justice, there is an equal and lamentable drive for over-reaction. It is far too easy to get a rise out of people on social media or to have their television or film contract reassessed due to some stupid but ultimately unimportant remarks made in the past. On college campuses, speakers are protested for merely holding non-liberal views and as a result, many fear the very idea of free speech is under threat (especially when the term “hate speech” gets added to the mix). Outrage is an industry in and of itself.
Millennials can be said to be tolerant of anything but intolerance. Again, generally. At first glance, this may seem amicable and perfectly reasonable. Look at the strides made by the LGBTQ community this decade; today, people assess sexuality and gender in a far broader context than ten years ago. On the other hand, judgment has become popular and forgiveness is in short supply. This is not meant to advocate some false equivalency of opinion between liberals and conservatives but rather to point out that to effect change among certain groups, it is sometimes wise to speak rather than shout, listen so as to at least be cordial. This is as much a question of generational divide as it is political ideology; a great gulf has split people on subjects ranging from health care to gender neutral bathrooms. I believe we should let decency prevail where political correctness fails because there are numbers to be gained from the other side, especially in 2020.
With all that in mind, I don’t think millennials can be faulted for their intentions. Climate change does need to be addressed and for this reason alone, there is more hope to be found with 20- to 30-somethings than with our elders. The question looming over the 2020s on this issue, among others (like gun control) will be did they manage to tackle the problem effectively as well as righteously.
The Culture Wars (On Steroids)
To explore this generational/ideological gulf further, we must assess why and how everything became so political. What do I mean? What talk show today doesn’t feature a joke about Trump? What books or movies or genres of music do well with one camp or with another? This isn’t exactly a new idea- the culture wars have long been prevalent in American society but nowadays, even a movie like Star Wars: The Last Jedi is read by some as a feminist assault on traditional cinema. The reactions to divisive projects like this are often downright ridiculous but they do have origins tales of their own; for just as diversity promised to enrich America’ cultural experience, there were those who felt the pendulum was moving a little too fast and in places with a little too much force (e.g. female reboots, politically correct re-workings). With the recent reaction to John Legend’s version of “Baby, It’s Cold Outside”, it’s fair to say that “woke culture” (to broaden this horizon) was given a bit of a slap in the face. The condemning of past opinions too (like John Wayne’s on race relations), while right, also seem trivial and petty. Will it be a case that liberals have to learn to pick their battles or will a dignified if self-righteous sense of morality prevail?
Of course, the culture wars don’t matter to most people and outrage (built on Twitter feeds) has never truly reflected the actuality of common opinion. Clickbait journalism and not-even-trying-to-be-objective-anymore news stations have amplified once barely prevalent tensions. Controversy sells and as long as people relinquish their sacred duty for critical thinking (on the left and right), the battleground will continue to get muddier.
It’s also become harder to blend opposing facets of oneself. You vote Blue so you must adhere to every liberal constitution, right? Your favourite movie is Moonlight andyou drive a hybrid? Where the divide between Democrats and Republicans has intensified on the actual issues, so too have the values associated with social liberals and conservatives. It may not come across on your social media field but there have been gay republicans and fervently religious but vegan democrats. Contradictions may arise if you take everything literally but people aren’t just what they wear, what they vote, or what they listen to. The idea of groupthink and identity politics may be useful for our understanding of certain privileges and economic disadvantages but it is fundamentally important to remember the individuals (sometimes) trapped within.
From Hope to Trump
So far, we have largely explored the emerging tide of liberal values among millennials as well as their shortcomings. While their voices may be heard across social media and campuses however, the real power now lies with a bizarre authoritarian right wing. Is this a reaction to political correctness? A reaction to an America older white people don’t recognise? To the failure and stalling of democracy? Obama? It’s hard to pin it down to one reason but most people would agree it is indeed a reaction.
Let’s go back to 2010. The economy is poor and health care legislation has been passed. The Republicans have amped up their objection to an 11. Will they undo Obama’s key piece of legislation? No. But they will use it as bait to take back both the House and Senate later that year and for the next six, make Obama’s presidency as much of a struggle as possible. Every time, a shooting occurs, they will keep focused and ensure protection of the NRA… I mean, the 2nd Amendment. Every time, a liberal piece of legislation comes forward from Obama, they will block it because they understand it to be good politics; the attack strategies of the last twenty years have worked, so why not? Thus, Obama is confined to foreign policy measures and acting where he can. To many, he appears weak.
Obama’s team is not willing to give up that easily however. There are cards to play and victories do emerge, even if they take time. One such victory was the assassination of Bin Laden in 2011, which undoubtedly helped push the re-election campaign along nicely. Beating Romney the following year also cemented his popularity, meaning he could argue his case to the public more frequently. The Iran Nuclear Deal and Gay Marriage followed in 2015 and all things considered, Obama had done a pretty good job with what he was given. So why was there such a fundamental shift in 2016?
For one, people underestimated just how important the appeal of Obama, himself, was. Hillarys politics may not have been miles off his but she simply couldn’t inspire the loyalty he did; he was one of the greatest orators of all time. As well as that however, Obama was unable to translate his messages across as those of the Democratic establishment. After all, they lost handily in 2014, even before Trump entered the picture. Perhaps because, for all their gesticulation, they couldn’t advertise themselves half as well as the GOP. Confidence it seems can be as toxic as it is appealing. That’s where Trump comes in.
Trump won, not because of the substance of his arguments but because of the way he projected them and himself. The Republican field toppled in the debates of late 2015 and all the while, throughout the primaries, we fooled ourselves into thinking this was some kind of joke. Brexit should’ve rang alarm bells. Trump getting the nomination should have too. But like an age-old tragedy, we followed the path blindly and suffered as a result.
If Trump wasn’t a traditional conservative, it didn’t matter at all. As stated earlier, Nixon established the EPA; so clearly this party’s open to whatever. And just like that, they all relinquished honesty and their duty for the sake of power (… Paul Ryan). The Democrats, on the other hand, may not have exactly appeased their camp but they did little to persuade voters, who could be turned, why theirs was a better one to join. Many liberals simply took to labelling Trump supporters stupid, racist, misogynistic, homophobic, and so on. This continues to be a mistake, in my view, and a crucial one differentiating many working class people struggling with every day economic opportunities from the elitist self-righteous liberals who know nothing of them.
Trump’s impeachment may get rid of the man but it won’t get rid of the problem because he’s as much a symptom of the ills dominating the bi-polarity of politics this decade as obtuse NRA support or further tax breaks for the 1% are. In a strange way, it’s odd that it’s taken so long for a clown to ascend to the throne considering the acrobatics and pantomime politicians perform but if anything should be clear to the Democrats now, it is that their battle will not end in 2020. Complacency has always been their problem.
A New Left
There is a spark of hope to be found in the Democratic Party however as we end the 2010s. For just as the right has moved beyond any nuance of centrism, the left has recognised its need to stake its own ground too. The campaign of Bernie in 2016 mobilised a movement the corporate Democrats simply didn’t understand; one that has already flourished with the election of candidates like Alexandria Occasion Cortes last year and the adoption of more liberal stances in the election field this year. The party is undergoing a period of transformation, having essentially spent the last 30 years meeting their adversaries in a compromised middle. Whether this will prove wise remains to be seen. Two schools of thought are currently battling it out to see who can take back those Trump voters; the more centrist likes of Joe Biden and the others like Bernie/Warren. Again, we see the political and the cultural dominoes of America falling in tandem.
As I’ve often stated in pieces on this site, I believe the issues should remain central to Bernie’s and other’s campaigns, not the bait Republicans masquerade as issues (e.g. patriotism) nor the scandals that get blown out of proportion (e.g. Hillary’s emails). So far, they seem to be on track but as the other elections of the 2010s have shown, the Republicans aren’t bad at winning.
How strange the Clinton-Blair years now seem to us in a world turned upside down. Forests are burning, debts are rising, automation threatens millions of jobs, racism appears more openly acceptable, and James Corden has a chat show. The 2010s have been a scary time and they’ve only gotten more so; the fresh fruit of the Obama years now rotten to its core. Were we misguided by hope as we may be now? Possibly. I think, more likely however, voter apathy and perennial compromise by liberals beset on preaching without acting led to desperation.
In times of economic upheaval and vulnerability, radical ideologies become all the more appealing. That is not to say we will face a direct parallel with the 1930s and devolve into a fight between fascism, democracy, and communism but this sharp split is somewhat reminiscent. It will play out dramatically in next year’s election, which will be about much more than electing a new president; it’ll be about ratifying the course American culture will head in under the auspices of ideological, generational, and human values (or as Joe Biden put it, the “soul of America”).
The 2010s are yet foggy and there was a great deal more I could have explored (e.g. foreign policy, keyboard warriors, police brutality, #metoo, etc.) but a feint trajectory permeates this hew nonetheless; one linking our apathy and disinterest to upheaval and renewed activism. The people of today speak of politics far more than they did ten years ago. This is both a good and bad thing.
The concern surrounding the climate change crisis seems to finally be reaching its target audience, the world. This is in large part thanks to Swedish activist Greta Thunberg and her powerful campaigns as well as a growing consensus on the part of liberals that bold action is needed ASAP. So which Democratic candidate has the most to offer future generations in this debate and which plan should we be standing by? It may be a matter of simply adding the numbers against scientific projections but unfortunately in the world of Washington, political capital is just as important.
Bernie Sanders, the wild haired independent from Vermont, has naturally put up the largest number in his addresses to tackling this issue. His plan would involve spending $16 trillion over the course of 15 years, aiming for zero emissions from transport and power generation by 2030, while supporting the Green New Deal proposed earlier this year. Elizabeth Warren is rated highly by GreenPeace too; she too desires 100% clean energy and has tied her approach into a more general economic restructuring. Some candidates like Andrew Yang and Beto O’ Rourke have also discerned where funds should be appropriated for coastal inhabitants being relocated and measures being implemented like sea walls, acknowledging that the crisis is already at hand. Indeed, most of them agree that clean energy, disaster relief funds, and taxation will be necessary to some degree or another; where they differ is in funds (Bernie’s plan costing the most, Joe Biden’s $1.7 trillion among the least) and attainable goals by time (Bernie’s being the most ambitious with the likes of Julian Castro’s or O’ Rourke’s 2045/2050 in contrast.
They’re all more or less admirable approaches and where specifics arise, like Biden’s plan for half a million renewable power stations, there is some room for hope. But not too much. Yes, there has been a 17% growth since 2013 in Americans seeing climate change as a major threat and yes, there is a rise in renewable energy in parts (e.g. in wind turbines in Texas). Unfortunately, there’s also been an increase in energy consumption, with 2018 seeing a significant spike as a result of post-recession spending (with the last peak year being 2007). As of last year, petroleum and natural gas still dominate this consumption, with renewable sources adding up to a mere 11% (Energy Information Administration). Plus, although 3/4 Americans now believe in climate change (a still embarrassing figure), only 56% Republicans surveyed in August (by AP VoteCast) agreed, with even less (41%) believing human activity was a factor in this.
The odds are not great, especially with the way the Senate is tilted currently and time is running out for the nation that produces 15% of the world’s emissions. To effectively tackle the crisis, a World War 2 level of mobilization will be needed. Perhaps in an economic model of some kind then, we can place our best faith. After all, wind and solar and hydro-electric energy make sense, whether you believe the science or not. Coal is not making a comeback, despite what Trump may have suggested and fracking is coming under an increasing amount of scrutiny. Over half the candidates are for a ban in that area (Castro and Klobuchar support limiting these resources).
The next president, God willing, will face America’s and the world’s greatest challenge. For all the fear-mongering rhetoric the right and idiots would associate with such a statement and what Greta Thunberg has said, the reality is alarming. So should the candidates propose these measures with an air of restraint, lest they alienate voters, or put it out on the line, with the severity it deserves? I hope it will be the latter. After all, the Democrats finally started to impeach Trump, they won the House handily in 2018, and they’ve brought ideas like Sanders and Warren’s into the mainstream (a far cry from five years ago). Hillary tried to walk the line, the same way so many Democrats have in recent decades, positing a centrist alternative to issues the Republicans had the mic on. This time, the Democrats need to be strong and unapologetic because for all the urgency of their other priorities, e.g. health care, climate change is the only one with a non-negotiable time frame.
17 months yet remain till the deciding vote is cast for the next president of the United States, if indeed, there is one (and if there is indeed still a democracy). Just about every key Democrat figure you’ve heard of has their thrown their name into the ring with over 20 candidates now declared. With this wild assembly threatening the already weakened image of the excuse-me-sir-is-this-gluten-free party, a plan is now more important than ever. This is why there will be two Democratic debates held this week… yes, two… and with 10 candidates apiece. Will they resolve some differences and set a standard goal with which to hammer the incumbent? Or will they sully the already murky waters of their objectives and philosophies? Let’s investigate.
Debate #1 (Wednesday, 26 June)
Candidates: Elizabeth Warren; Beto O’ Rourke; Cory Booker; Amy Klobuchar; John Delaney; Tulsi Gabbard; Julian Castro; Tim Ryan; Bill de Blasio; Jay Inslee
Essentially the B-side to the following night’s debate, this is Warren’s chance to shine among a field of relative obscurities (on the national stage). She is seen as a far-left choice by some and too economically-minded by others but her rising stardom coupled with her no-nonsense resolve makes her an inviting alternative to Sanders, whilst also carrying the torch of those determined to see their first female president. In my opinion, she could make for an excellent president (polling behind Biden and Sanders) but her anti-Wall Street sentiments and lack of (let’s say) wackiness gives her a challenge of image for the undecided. Unfortunately, I could see Trump painting her as a weak-minded loopy socialist of some sort.
As for the others, I don’t want to exactly disparage or dismiss them but when your strongest challenger shoots for Dukakis-like photo ops (see below) and just lost a Senatorial race to slimy Ted Cruz, it’s difficult to see them going far. Still, Beto O’Rourke is an affable candidate, in many people’s minds, and his youthful image could provide a much desired contrast to the dinosaurs dominating American politics today.
Debate #2 (Thursday, 27 June)
Candidates: Marianna Williamson; John Hickenlooper; Andrew Yang; Pete Buttigieg; Joe Biden; Bernie Sanders; Kamala Harris; Kirsten Gillibrand; Michael Bennett; Eric Swalwell
The media’s attention will undoubtedly be placed on drawing distinctions between Biden and Sanders; the two front-runners wrestling for the soul of the party. Will the more centrist slick politics of the former VP fare well or will the should-have-been nominated choice of the left topple him? For many, it’s essentially Clinton-vs.-Sanders part two. Biden, however, is no Clinton. Yes, he is not as liberal as Sanders or Warren but he’s also not as rehearsed and guarded as the former Secretary of State. Biden’s appeal lies in his compassion and relatability; something someone who’s been as involved as he has (and for as long as he has) should not have. People like him. He could probably hold his own against Trump the way others might not. His main problem, in these debates and the primaries, will be in overcoming controversies relating to past decisions (certain votes, Anita Hill) and behavior (the whole massaging people’s shoulders thing) but these are essentially overblown by the woke no-context trolls of the internet. Let’s remember, before we injure another promising candidate, that people’s attitudes were different in the ’80s and ’90s and that whatever any of these people have said simply does not compare to what the current president is actually doing.
Enough about Joe though. Let’s move onto Sanders. He was my own preferred candidate back in 2016 and a part of me would love to see him become the next president but honestly (and sorry), some of the magic has worn off. It may be the fact that the democratic base has become more liberal (thanks in large part to himself), making him just another voice among the throngs; it may be that some of his ideas (free tuition) just don’t seem practically attainable; it may even be that I’ve just heard his message too often- but the level of excitement surrounding his run just isn’t what it felt like four years ago. Perhaps, I’ve become jaded. I don’t know. The important thing to remember is, and you can find this in the polls, that he stands a very good shot. Some liberals need to be reminded that although yes, he is another white old man, he has been the most committed champion of their causes (something his team keeps prodding about on social media). His fans, then, also need to be reminded that it does no good to act like a whiny little bitch and refuse to support whoever beats him. Let’s also not make age an issue. Biden’s one year younger than him and Trump is 73.
Besides those two, some of these candidates are intriguing, if not yet convincing. Pete Buttigieg, for instance, is a 37-year old gay/veteran/liberal mayor, who’s drawn a lot of attention for his eloquence. He sounds smart and he can’t be pinned down to one specific picture; almost the perfect contrast to Trump. The problem is nobody really knows what he’s all about. Remember kids, identity politics isn’t everything. Then there’s Kamala Harris, one of the earliest candidates to declare. A former prosecutor, she’s a tough one, who for all her law experiences, gains all the more credibility in her attacks against Trump. Andrew Yang has meanwhile discerned himself from the rest, putting ideology aside, to focus on universal basic income and the decreasing number of jobs available in America. This seems common sense but pundits and commentators sometimes forget how crucial economic matters are to voters’ minds. This is worrying, of course, because the economy is actually doing well, thanks to Obama, but credited by Trump to Trump. Democrats can’t let the president seize this victory.
It’s early days yet. Although I’ve only focused on a few candidates, everyone has a chance to shine up on stage. Nothing’s guaranteed. Someone could, for instance, fart and break down right there and then. Someone could do a George Bush and run two words into the one. Someone could do an Al Gore and look smarmy for just a moment too long. Anything’s possible.
In some ways, it’s ridiculous that these debates are happening as early as they are and in some ways, it’s a good thing. The Democratic party has not tended to unify as solidly as the Republicans have in the past. After all, look how quickly everyone abandoned their principles and got behind Trump in 2016? Despicable but remarkable. The democrats need to stop shooting their own. If Biden’s a little too centrist for you, so what? He’s a lot better for your country than Trump is. Is Warren not exciting enough? It doesn’t matter. She’ll get the job done well. Democrats failed to resolve the conflict between their own ideals and the bigger picture back in 2016 again. If they fail this time, then America will truly be granted the president it deserves.
Recently, an old Playboy interview with John Wayne from nearly 50 years ago was rediscovered which revealed some horrendous beliefs he held about race relations, white supremacy being a good thing, and homosexuality. This sparked outrage with the usual suspects who a) don’t contextualize anything and b) know nothing about John Wayne. Now, let me preface this with the painfully obvious but excruciatingly important detail that I am, by no means, defending John Wayne or what he said. In fact, I’d even go so far as to posit that his opinions were particularly racist for a racist white guy in the early 1970s. They were vile, stupid, and yes, offensive but- they were not made by someone alive or of our generation or even the two before it.
If you have ever watched a single one of Wayne’s movies, you simply wouldn’t figure him for some kind of liberal. You might even, to take a very minuscule leap, gather that he was of a very old, patriarchal, white-bred kind of background. That doesn’t make what he said okay but to be shocked or outraged by someone’s words, I would at least attest that you’d have to have thought of them in some other kind of context. Basically, it’s not that surprising to learn an old white star, who was by then in his 60s, held some bigoted beliefs. And it doesn’t make much sense (and this is the fundamental point) to make a career of sifting through an old star’s interviews from decades ago with a modern lens of morality. Years from now we will undoubtedly be judged for what we did, yes, but for the likes of Wayne, we should probably still be able to enjoy his output while acknowledging that he wasn’t exactly a symbol of tolerance.
Part Two- The Rise of Cancel Culture
The modern trend of social justice, in the forms of #metoo, political correctness, and cancel culture has risen and taken storm as a result of frustrations built upon years of a lack accountability on the part of powerful figures. The courts can be slow to deliver proper punishments, if any, in even the most high profile cases. Political systems have been infected with a slew of problems, so cumbersome that they’ve become almost insurmountable. And even shows like The Big Bang Theory continue to thrive despite the fact that they are clearly dreadful. In such times, the mantle of social media can appear attractive. It has given a voice to the voiceless. It has helped promote awareness of issues we never would have thought of. It even gets you quick customer service where all other avenues fail. It’s also dangerous however.
The problem with social media is not so much that it can present biased, clickbait visions or news pieces, without much resistance, but that it’s populated with the worst kind of people you could ever listen to. Any given day on Facebook, I can scroll through my newsfeed, and find a barrage of comments on an article that has obviously not been read in full or countered. Too many people don’t want to have their viewpoints challenged so they cling to familiar publications or channels (like liberals for the Huffington Post and conservatives for Breitbart) and ignore that which falls between, taking in sensationalist headlines which eventually build up a picture of someone or some idea without much shade or nuance.
I don’t want to get into bi-partisanship however. I’ve impressed the above point only to account for the lack of accountability people afford themselves when they interact with others on Twitter, Facebook, etc. They react instinctively and without good measure when allegations arise, which brings us back the way of cancel culture. Let’s take the not-so-comfortable example of notorious racist Liam Neeson. The thing about Neeson is he’s not our classic idea a notorious racist. Some say he’s just another human being who admitted to a detestable moment in his life, when he sought vengeance for a friend of his who had been raped, by roaming the streets and looking for a “black bastard to kill.”
Let’s unpack this slowly and carefully. First of all, it was racist and horrible and I don’t think anyone can expect any black person to take this account without offense or anxiety. After all, this is the kind of hate many have had to deal with their whole lives, resulting in unwarranted arrests of murders. Neeson’s story, however, was not happened upon by some journalist. He told it himself, as a way of admitting his own guilt, clearing his conscience perhaps, and illustrating the the deep-rootedness of bigotry in society. He felt shame, yes, but he also said he could’ve killed someone. So, do we #cancel him or at least, evaluate the details of his story first?- because it if both a typical and untypical example of prejudice influencing a person’s mindset.
Putting aside whatever conclusions you may come to, the problem for me with this story, was how it got reported and discussed by the majority of people in social and regular media. For one, many seemingly missed the point where Neeson asked for the details of his friend’s attacker (height, hair, etc.) as well as the details of the story as a whole, and focused immediately on the headlines. For another, people called him an “idiot” for simply bringing the story up which granted was stupid, given he was promoting a movie. If we can’t discuss difficult topics like this however with some grace, how can we begin to actually solve them?
Part Three- Art and Morality
Woven into the tapestry of this debate on cancel culture is the thread of modern morality and “wokeness”. Can we separate art from the artist or do we need to stop making excuses for facilitating the careers of harmful individuals like R. Kelly?
Undoubtedly, a few good things have arisen in this current climate of social justice. The #metoo movement, for instance, finally got a great many people to pay attention to the rampant culture of sexual harassment dominating work spaces. It impressed upon men, in particular, that if you behaved a certain way, you would be held to account (not that it’s been wholly effective or noticed everywhere). We’ve come to appreciate that racism is systematic beyond the plain and obvious insults and attacks of past generations. We tolerate less so that more are accepted. We’ve also come to confront an issue that never seemed like much of an issue too; toxic fandom.
In a sense it’s easy enough to cancel a celebrity like Neeson or Kevin Spacey by refusing to entertain any more of their work. With someone like R. Kelly, it’s tougher because he had a large fan base and produced many hits, for himself and an array of other artists. A radio station can withdraw “Ignition” from the airwaves but they can’t exactly strip it of its appeal. And what about Michael Jackson then? The controversial Leaving Neverland documentary, which aired in our parts last week, saw two fresh allegations presented over the course of four hours against the late King of Pop. Are people really going to forget or condemn songs like “Billie Jean”? Some radio stations have already begun to stop playing these, on the basis of this wound being “too fresh”. Many of his fans however, on the opposite end of this spectrum, are flat out denying the validity of these allegations. Their concerns aren’t without logic but as documentary favorite Louis Theroux has pointed out, they can act “willfully blind” in the name of their hero.
That’s where we come to the idea of toxic fandom as a tide fighting against #cancel culture. It’s a lot easier to stand by an artist like Michael Jackson who’s greatly influenced you than it is to accept the allegations leveled against him. It’s almost too much to bear for people who want everything about this icon to be pure and unquestionable. In this sense, perhaps the trend of social justice is doing us a necessary, if painful service, like ripping a bandage off. We need to learn to accept our favorite stars might not be as great in their personal lives as they are in their art which has been true throughout the course of history.
Balance will be the key to all of this and it will take some time but I don’t think it’s necessary to discard the works of these fallen giants. After all, MJ opened a lot of doors for black artists in the industry. That can’t be taken away from him, just as Cosby’s influence on comedy can’t be eradicated. The fans don’t need to feel guilty for enjoying these people’s work but they should accept that deification of such figures gives way to a toxic and irresponsible culture, where abuse of power rests comfortably and heartache inevitably follows. In extreme cases such as theirs, we cannot turn a blind eye to their conduct (alleged or proven) but we should also not shackle ourselves to the notion that every celebrity, politician, or Twitter provocateur deserves to be cancelled and erased from history. Nuance is key, redemption is possible, and forgiveness is not at all a weak act.
At the Washington Walrus, we recognize that it can sometimes be difficult to keep up with the latest in baffling tweets, nonsensical decisions, and eh… “reverse psychology” employed by the Trump Administration. One story may change from one end of the day to the next. So, we thought, it’d be handy to save you the hassle of sorting through this all and give you the main talking points that dominated this presidency in 2018 (year 2) with some colorful commentary.
Fire and Fury is released. Although Michael Wolff’s first-hand account is un-sourced and speculative, it manages to grind Trump’s gears immediately. Mike Pence, who believes gays can be cured with shock therapy, decries it as a “work of fiction.” Later on this year, his family will release a book about his rabbit, Marlon Bundo.
Trump presents the “Fake News Awards” via Twitter. The New York Times and CNN dominate the evening.
Government Shutdown 1/3- this time over government funding.
Government Shutdown 2/3- over funding again. Eventually, things clear and a budget proposal is launched with major tax cuts for the rich.
Former Trump lawyer, Michael Cohen, starts facing a tough year when he acknowledges payment (on his own behalf) to Stormy Daniels in 2016.
Trump fires Rex Tillerson and hires former CIA director, Mike Pompeo, as new Secretary of State. Gina Haspel takes over his role meanwhile.
Trump, against advice, calls Putin to congratulate him on his re-election.
White House issues memorandum on Mattis’ military policies to the effect that they support disqualifying transgender people from military service.
Increased scrutiny on Stormy Daniels’ affair. She files a lawsuit on claims Trump’s made.
Ends temporary protected status for Hondurans.
Department of Homeland Security reveals that between April 19 and May 31, nearly 2,000 children were separated from adults at the Mexican border. Trump tries to blame others, including Democrats for what easily ranks in his top 3 evil policies to date.
Describes Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, as “very dishonest and meek” after G7 summit.
Scott Pruitt resigns as EPA head.
Robert Mueller indicts 12 Russian intelligence officers over hacking Democratic emails.
Trump advises Theresa May to sue the EU over Brexit negotiations. It’s quite a month for him.
Trump and Putin meet at a summit in Helsinki. Trump states he knows no reason why Russia would’ve interfered in the 2016 election. Putin gives Trump a football as a present. Trump throws it to Melania, saying it’ll be a present for Barron. The world watches stunned.
Iran’s President, having said a war between the US and Iran would be the “mother of all wars” is hit with Trump’s latest constipation tweet: “To Iranian President Rouhani: NEVER, EVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES AGAIN OR YOU WILL SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE. WE ARE NO LONGER A COUNTRY THAT WILL STAND FOR YOUR DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE & DEATH. BE CAUTIOUS!” It was all caps, so you know he means business.
Cohen claims Trump knew of June 2016 meeting in Trump Tower between campaign officials and Russian lobbyists promising “dirt” on Clinton.
Press Secretary, Sarah H. Sanders calls the press the “enemy of the people”.
Manafort and Cohen are both found guilty of 5 counts of tax evasion.
Trump says in an interview with Fox that if he was to be impeached, the market would most surely crash. He’s taken a lot of credit for the economy this year.
The Senate Confirmation hearings begin for Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, Brett Kavanaugh. This lasts through to October. We learn he likes beer and studiously marks his calendars.
Trump claims before the UN General Assembly that his administration has, in less than 2 years, accomplished more than “almost any other” in history. They laugh at him. Trump says he wasn’t expecting that reaction but that it’s okay. It’s not really though, is it?
Kavanaugh’s confirmation by a hefty 51-49 affirms for many that the #metoo movement still faces limits.
Trump campaigns in anticipation of the mid-term elections.
Jeff Sessions resigns and is replaced by Matthew Whitaker.
Trump fails to attend a WW1 memorial ceremony in Paris with other world leaders due to weather.
Despite expressing concerns over the disappearance of journalist Khashoggi, Trump declares loyalty to Saudi Arabia.
Defends Ivanka’s use of private email.
Cohen pleads guilty to lying to Congress over Mueller/Russia investigation.
George H.W. Bush’s funeral reminds us that the president doesn’t have to be a villain. Not by virtue of Trump however. He looks strikingly out of place.
Cohen sentenced to 3 years for tax evasion, violation of campaign finance laws, and deceiving banks and Congress.
Secretary of Defense, Jim Mattis, resigns, after Trump tweets that troops will return home from Syria with victory over ISIS being assured.
Government Shutdown 3/3 over funding for the Border Wall.
And there you have it! Quite a year, huh? Of course, this only scratches the surface. There was also the beginning of a trade war with China and many other resignations/firings. Or how about that meeting with Kim Jong Un? Yes, even though it was one year, a lot happened but what seemed to dominate thematically and quite literally were:
Trump and his team’s lies unfurling under the weight of the exhaustive Mueller investigation.
Trump’s sense of indignation and hostility growing exponentially with any who disagreed with him.
Trump’s needs for appraisal at any cost- be it by others lying to him or by him lying to others about things he has (but hasn’t actually) accomplished.
These themes will probably course over into 2019, a year in which the stakes will undoubtedly be amplified considering the momentum of Mueller’s investigation and the fact that the Democrats will take lead in the House of Representatives. But will it be an easy road for liberals then? Or will Trump’s base fight back, feeling the victims of persecution in both a political and cultural war? And what can Trump do/say to shock us at this point. Well, here’s a few things for 2019 we predict:
The “Fake News Awards” become an actual 3-hour long televised event on Fox with in-memoriam slides for celebrities Trump feels were wrongly accused of sexual misconduct.
Trump tweets spoilers for the Game of Thrones’ finale having gotten Eric to secure a copy. Eric, meanwhile, feels he has done his father proud and gets a gold star.
Attacks nations that don’t pay their dues on the international stage, like Wakanda, which he mistakes for a real country. Marvel play ball.
Promotes Barron to an advisory role. Eric looks on with jealousy.
Delays the 2020 election on account of “important things” needing taken care of first. Democrats, gridlocked on the issue of whether Harry Potter promoted a diverse-enough school experience, fail to challenge him on this.
Claims the wall has been built but is invisible. It’s best not tested though because while it will not prevent you crossing as such, it will inflict a terrible curse on you and your family.
On Tuesday, American voters have the chance to re-frame much of their governmental structure and the issues at play over the next two years. Not only are all House seats and 1/3 Senate seats up for grabs, so are a number of Governorships and Attorney General positions. Historically, voter turnout for midterms have been lower than years when the presidency is up. This year however, early voting seems to indicate a promising shift for the otherwise complacent Democratic party, who’ve seen devastating losses since 2010. Is this purely reactionary to the Trump agenda or have liberals finally learned what it takes to set the tone for a nation so entrenched in right-wing dogma? It’s seemingly both (as you’d imagine) but the issues aren’t all that’s at play.
Let’s take a trip back down memory lane to two years ago when Trump defied the odds and became the 45th US President. Liberals were so beside themselves in trying to explain just what had happened. Was their progressive vision now irrelevant? Had bigotry eclipsed their hopes for further equality and subsumed any focus of their issues? Was all lost? Well, it’s not that simple but they had lost bad. After all, Republicans had taken both houses of Congress as well as the Oval Office. So, as Crooked Hillary’s book asked, what happened? Here’s a few thoughts, not expressed in that book:
The Democrats lost focus on the important issues: Really, most Americans need proper health care, are for sensible gun control, and could do with a decent minimum wage hike. As Bernie Sanders would say though (arms flopping about), these are the issues that are never covered by the mainstream media. But also by some liberals. They take the bait too often and lose themselves in the maelstrom of Trump’s tweets and the latest non-controversies, defined by-
Political Correctness. Sigh. We’ve covered this topic, maybe exhaustively, but let’s be clear about this; it’s not that political correctness is in itself bad but it alienates liberals from many potential voters by painting a picture of piety and self-righteousness wildly at odds with most Americans’ mindsets. Most people don’t want to associate themselves with the buzz-killingtons of the world and the liberals SJWs are just that.
Identity politics too, for all its value in assessing demographics, should not be religiously standardized to the point that blacks, women’s, gays, and white males get defined by atypical subsets of values. When statements like Hillary’s about Trump’s inaugural address being a “cry from the white nationalist gut” are made, it does very little for reaching out to Trump voters. And liberals should be reaching out. There’s no real reason you have to separate these groups of voters when so many of their concerns are shared in actual issues; job protection, health care, social security, etc.
The Democrats have lost vision for their party too. To be fair, it’s gotten more progressive recently but in 2016, there seemed to be two threads being pulled between that side (on behalf of the likes of Sanders and Elizabeth Warren) and the more centrist wave that’s dominated since the 90s. The party needs to consolidate its core principles and its base because for all the terrible ideas the GOP espouse, they do so together. Unlike the Democrats, they’re confident, strong, and on-point.
In many ways, this is a call for the Democratic Party to react to previous losses by moving further to the left, so long as they do so on the issues. It’s no use criticizing and labeling all of Trump’s supporters when in reality, their concerns aren’t so different from liberals’. Trump is a unique phenomenon and his presence is undoubtedly felt in these midterm elections but he’s also best understood as a symptom of a sickness that’s taken hold in American politics; extreme bipartisanship.
As above, I’ve argued that identity politics is limiting to our understanding of how Democrats will vote on Tuesday but that doesn’t mean key issues, primarily affecting womens or blacks won’t play a role. For instance, I think it’s fair to say there’ll be some backlash to the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh. In the era of #metoo as well, there’ll likely be a thirst for progressives and indeed, it is a record year for women running for office (but again, complacency is a great weakness- just ask the last year of women, 1992.) In this respect, individual issues are taking a backseat to greater visions for a new liberal base. If the Democrats lose badly, the party may very well resume its default centrist position but it feels like it’s beginning to get the fire in its gut again.
Firstly, let’s qualify this title before it’s misinterpreted the way so many others are. This is meant, by no means, as a defense of Trump, his policies, or his legitimacy as president. Rather, it is a simple, nagging thought bubble that submerges every now and then, prodding as to whether impeachment is necessarily the path we should take. Lately, I’ve been thinking no.
Trump deserves impeachment. He never deserved to be president. He probably doesn’t deserve human form; perhaps a Horcrux but okay, sorry, not even that. To put aside the platitudes surrounding his level of deftness for a moment though, let’s consider impeachment: what it means, what its effect on America and the cultural hegemony would be, and why beating Trump in the 2020 election may unfortunately be the option best waited on.
Impeachment, as established by the U.S. Constitution, can come about as result of treason, bribery, or other “high crimes and misdemeanors”. Trump’s probably guilty of these three in some form or another. The problem is these clauses are open to a wide spectrum of interpretation, particularly in the case of the latter. Realistically, as President Ford put it, it comes down to “whatever a majority of the House of Representatives considers it to be at a given moment in history”. The House is of course controlled by the Republicans and so is the Senate. So straight off the bat, we have a problem there. But here’s a few other hard truths:
Recently, Trump’s approval ratings have lingered in the mid-40s. This is not unusual for a president at this point in their first term. His support may have dropped but don’t fool yourself into thinking it’s gone.
His support eludes morality and reason. Remember back in 2015 when everyone thought his bid was a joke? Remember when no-one thought he could beat Hillary? We need to stop thinking the ludicrous can’t happen.
His endurance rests on: a) the flotsam of a post-truth world in which facts get lumped in with “Fake News”; b) the populist frustration that still exists with old Washington; and c) the inflammation of the Culture Wars and polarity between Left and Right
I’m not arguing that Trump’s levels of support cannot dwindle to the point of endangerment but for practicality’s sake, we need to accept that perception and emotion precludes reason, doubt, and logic at present. With regards to point 3.c. above especially, we must recognize that there’s a base of conservatives and even non-political individuals who’ve come to disavow much of what the far-Left are associated with; political correctness, identity politics, and liberal activist leanings in all areas of society (e.g. universities and the arts). Trump has fed off this polarity and taken things farther. Although there were some right-wingers who truly wanted “THE WALL” and a Muslim ban, there were also many people in 2016 who just wanted to stick it to the Left. They may be wrong- I won’t weigh in- but the image was drawn. That picture hasn’t changed.
Of course, you might wonder as to when impeachment should occur if not now. It is still possible, I suppose. Headlines continue to shock, even in recent days with that pantomime display in Helsinki. But impeachment, given the context above, will leave a lot of people unhappy and they won’t rest easy. They will see it as a means of encroachment on their civil liberties, freedom of speech, etc. and bullshit. It may even result in further mobilization of the Alt-Right, who would then seek to take down the next Democratic president without hesitation. (Clinton and Obama experienced increased pettiness on this scale and it’ll only get worse). Of course, that problem doesn’t go away even if Trump’s defeated in election. The Republicans will likely stew as they always have but- it will be that much harder to justify supporting a president who lost by electoral means than one who was “done in”.
As aforementioned, none of this may even matter as the Republicans are in control and they, collectively, have no spine. A few figures have criticized Trump’s rhetoric on occasion (like in Helsinki) but for the most part, it has become normalized among their ranks. Democrats may make major in-roads this November but given the seats up for contention in Senate, are unlikely to take a majority there. Plus, the impeachment process would be long, as anything in politics, ever is. 2020 may seem far away now but it may prove easier to just wait out as was the case with Lincoln’s successor, Andrew Johnson.
So where should the Democrats’ efforts go? Undoubtedly, a strong and media-savvy candidate will be needed for 2020 but even if 2018 proves a success, the Democrats must not give up on the House and Senate as they continually seem to do just when their president needs them. They must also try harder across the whole country, given the disastrous electoral college system that’s screwed them over twice in recent years. They should also not consider themselves “above” attacking Trump. After all, his wacky branding helped him knock off candidate after candidate in the Republican primaries. At the same time, focus on the issues the likes of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren hark on about; be the party of welfare and increased minimum wage but not the party that gets bogged down by identity politics and PC agendas. Those Trump supporters may very well be for the taking given enough room in that area.
It all essentially comes down to restoring order and sense in a chaotic time. Impeachment’s appealing and Trump deserves retribution but eliminating the Horcrux itself won’t eliminate the whole (all America’s problems). What he represents (or doesn’t) is far stronger than who he actually is.
It’s no secret that we here at the Washington Walrus hold Speaker Paul Ryan in low regard. It’s not that he’s as knuckle drawn and villainous as his contemporary right wingers, but rather that he’s so spineless and tepid in his approaches within this political sphere that he appears lame and useless as a result. In fact, we even covered this last year in a piece on just how pathetic he is, in case you want to read that.
Still, that word feels almost a little too cruel for this boy among beasts. Despite the level of authority and respect his position should merit, he has never really shined the way he should have- that is within the confines of a Republican snowglobe. No, he’s just been there somehow, haunting the halls of Congress like a a specter of mediocrity or Wormtongue-like essence- waiting for justification to leave; a legacy on which he can stand.
Has he achieved any sort of legacy therein? Not really. He may posit that his conservative agenda, with the likes of tax reform, has seen great strides in recent months but this has only haphazardly come to proposal under the tumultuous reigns of a man who pays porn stars to keep their mouths shut. He may argue that he never really wanted the position of Speaker and merely stood in to keep the reigns on the severing factions of the GOP. Even within that framework, he has largely failed- as evidenced by the election of a man he refused to even support one month out from voting. In fact, he has largely traipsed a line of abandoning any so called principles we thought he had in favor of appeasing a president who’s put him down more flagrantly than most political commentators. He may say he’s leaving to be more than a “weekend dad”, but does his family really want him at home?
Okay, so admittedly these musings are a little slanted. Let’s take a shot at assessing a more objective truth:
He may very well miss some quality family time. Republicans are all about the family unit and Ryan, compared to many of his cohorts, does seem like more of a traditional Republican.
Perhaps he needs some time to lay low and relax. The Trump Presidency has been an exhausting experience and Ryan hardly needs the stress of the job.
Strategically, this doesn’t seem to be a promising year for Republican candidates. They’ll all be held, to some extent, accountable for all the chaos that’s ensued the last two years. By taking the LBJ route and removing himself from the game altogether, Ryan need not get entangled in what will surely be a contentious and hard-fought race. (Even if his team were confident he would win, it seems likely that the Democrats are due a comeback of some kind this year).
Ryan doesn’t like ‘identity’ politics and that’s something you better get used to in 2018. Maybe the environment’s just become too toxic for a man like him. Maybe this party has just gotten too crazy for him.
Maybe he’ll return in some years for a Presidential run or some sort of other role. Hypothetically, if he was going for the top job, a bit of a break might do him some good. To follow up on point 3, it’d allow him to escape the embarrassment of a potential loss and to remove himself from the tendrils of the Trump campaign; give him some time to become his own man again. He could even write a book and earn a few bucks.
When one considers these five points, Ryan’s decision becomes all the more logical but truth be told, we can’t determine exactly why it’s time for him to step down. His overturning, like Boehner’s some years back, seems unlikely, given his stature and position within the GOP. Indeed, even his frothy relationship with Trump has stilled, probably owing to his decision to deal with the President increasingly in person, instead of in a public forum. One would hope, he finally came to the realization that ‘enough was enough’, but that seems a rather hapless and gullible approach to understanding this.
It may not matter- at least for now, our attention will turn to who will contest his seat on both sides come November and who, thereafter, will take the mantle of Speaker in January 2019. With many pundits already speculating about a Democratic takeover in the House, liberals will undoubtedly read this as a significant blow to their adversaries but if history has taught us anything, it’s that the GOP always have something up their sleeves (even if unintentionally).