Tag: 2024 election

A Bridge Collapsed: The Biden Presidency

A Bridge Collapsed: The Biden Presidency

Had President Biden made the decision to withdraw from the 2024 race earlier, we might’ve been writing a much different story. Alas, his refusal to do so (in conjunction with his initial proposal that his presidency would mark a “bridge”- like transition to a new generation) will likely be the first thing people recount when asked about his legacy. As it stands, this legacy looks on the grim side of things; at least, according to a Gallup poll which showed 54% of Americans viewed him as a “below average” or “poor” leader. But… history has a way of changing perspectives and so in complete folly, we’re going to (already) try and take the longview in assessing this administration.

Well, it’s a bridge of some kind, albeit between two terms of Donald Trump. So assuming the historians hold true on their negative assessment of Trump’s tenure, they’re not going to be too pleased with Biden for enabling his comeback. Granted, a lot of that blame can be placed at the feet of top Democrat party heads too but the story of a fractured party, torn by generational and cultural values, doesn’t exactly help Biden’s case. Had a more effective coalition been built, there might’ve been proper competition for the MAGA crowd. Instead, this party floundered and yielded way for the return of a stronger Trump backing. 

Granted, some of this was beyond Biden or Trump’s control. The chaos of the pandemic, for instance, was always going to have severe economic repercussions and this came in the shape of a massive 9% inflation rate in 2022. Like Jimmy Carter or any other unfortunate president before him, Biden simply had to take the hand he was dealt. To his credit, he passed sweeping legislation such as the Inflation Reduction Act to tackle this but since prices never went down, the average person was unable to see the benefits of such actions. In actuality, the economy has improved, with record-low employment and a record amount of applications for new businesses. In the next couple of years, Trump will undoubtedly take credit for the changes in fortune as they manifest more clearly. Unfortunately, sound economic policies just can’t be waved as a flag until everyone has else got theirs.

For that matter, the major achievements of the Biden presidency, such as the CHIPS act, his supports of unions, and infrastructure bill seem to pale against the half-glass empty analyses, i.e. the revelation that there are still some ways to go. This will always be true with regards any measures taken by a sitting president (who can only face tough decisions). For example, while the “Plan B” proposals of his student-loan forgiveness scheme were withdrawn, he still managed to achieve $180 billion in loan forgiveness. 

And then there is foreign policy, where there are domestic differences to contend with. Given another era, there probably would’ve been a consensus in the US against Russia. In the 2020s however, there’s even a faction of Republicans who favour their former adversaries over the Democrats, complicating the funds appropriated for Ukraine’s defence. Biden has been steadfast in his support of NATO and a strong ally of Zelensky, but as Trump prepares to take office again, a question mark lingers over how this will resolve. With the Palestine-Israel war then, we have seen divided opinions in the US on an ethnic and generational level. This has marked a shift away from the broad support Israel was once guaranteed there, with critics of Biden’s (and continued US foreign policy) arguing he’s helped facilitate war crimes in the Gaza Strip, failing to ever hold Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government to account. Should the very recent ceasefire hold, Biden might be looked on with some deference eventually, though it’ll be eternally countered with questions of why he couldn’t have pushed for peace sooner. This will also likely go down as the most contentious foreign policy decision of any president since George W Bush. We’re also going to have to contend with speculation on whether the incoming Trump administration was a greater factor in allowing this to pass.

Whichever way you look at the Biden presidency, Donald Trump seems to hover over it at every turn. The return to “normalcy” or the goal of “restoring the soul of the nation” has either fallen flat or been dismissed as liberal hogwash. Trump has, in a sense, been legitimised this time around; by virtue of winning the popular vote and the Democrats’ own flawed power dynamics leading to their own downfall. And despite a relatively decent farewell address, one can’t help but roll their eyes when Biden warns against the abuse of power, weeks after pardoning his own son (who apparently was above the law). The problem remains that the top Democratic Party members appear too elitist, slow, and out of touch with the people. And for much of Biden’s term, that image was capitalised on, with every stutter and pause exemplified to the Republicans’ benefit. As it stands, the Democrats are weakened and down on their luck. Of course, they’ve been handed major defeats in the past and come back before but it’ll take a proper chance to mobilise their base next time; a new generation with some authenticity. If one thing can be learned from these last few years, whether with the election or Biden’s cognitive decline, it is that you can’t pull the wool over the people’s eyes forever.

Lessons for the Left

Lessons for the Left

One week ago, the Democrats were handed an unambiguous defeat. A royal smackdown. Not just in the presidential race (across the electoral college and popular vote), but in the house and senate too. While many have been quick to suddenly attain 20-20 hindsight, it remains important for the Democrats to actually undergo proper penance, learn some lessons, and knuckle down for some hard work. 

Lesson 1: Democratic Process Matters

Up until a month ago, I thought Kamala might just pull through. Given the game-changing nature of her succession to the ticket, it felt like that wave of momentum might hold on (as discussed in our last article). Unfortunately, it crashed a little early from the shore and became a somewhat hollow experiment, in the wake of media appearances and interviews on her part, contrasted with a series of PR grabs for Trump (the McDonald’s gig and “garbage people” alliance). Ultimately, it became apparent that she just wasn’t the best candidate for the job (on the Democrats’ side). This leads us to a crucial point: the gulf in credibility between this party’s supposed defence of democratic values and their practice in nominating leaders.

In 2015-16, Bernie Sanders was one of the most exciting and promising voices of the left. Many (including myself) felt he would’ve done better than Hillary against Trump. Of course, history went one way and much of the older generation and establishment didn’t agree. They weren’t exactly honest in their tactics however, with the DNC swaying things in favour of Hillary. But okay, that might have been excused… if it were not for the race of 2020 coalescing around Joe Biden, seemingly just to speed things up. (I will never forget Pete Buttigieg dropping out after just his fourth primary, despite winning the first major one or Bernie’s shots being dashed by the onset of the pandemic; even if it understandably changed matters.) The point of the matter is that the party’s leaders were and have been directing the flow of this so-called democratic process.

Had Joe Biden withdrawn earlier (as he should have), there might’ve been time for a full primary season and open convention. Instead, it was purported that Biden was totally fine and capable of running again. When it became clear (during the debate) that he wasn’t, the Democrats began to panic. This meant taking quick action and… well, we’ve explored this all too recently. I’m not saying there was any easy path to be taken here. An open convention at this point probably would’ve been messy too but in the name of saving democracy, the Democrats didn’t exactly follow through with the public’s wishes. (Kamala’s approval ratings were pretty low before her big boost.) It’s a simple lesson but an important one for them to remember: practice what you preach. Let the cream rise to the top in 2028, without meddling.

Lesson 2: Retire The Vanguard

This will be brief. It’s time for a new generation of leadership. Joe Biden did well in 2020 but was never considered by anyone to be a serious contender for a two-term presidency. In those four years, the party should’ve been looking for their next Barack Obama… okay, that’s a little optimistic but they should’ve been looking for their next Bill Clinton or someone who could actually inspire voters. Instead, they’ve plodded along with Nancy Pelosi (retired from her speaker role but) retaining enormous influence. (She’s also just been elected for another term at age 84 by the way). I’m not saying these boomers have done a bad job or are unable to continue their roles in some capacity but they’ve dominated the political sphere of influence since the 90s at this point. It’s a different world now and it’s time for new faces.

Lesson 3: Re-Connect With The Working Class

Why the party of big business, led by a billionaire, has managed to secure all the swing states and won the allegiance of the working class should be mystifying. Economically speaking, the Democrats have been much better for the low-wage earner and yet as Bernie Sanders put it, “they feel abandoned” and have thus abandoned their party. Some of this was inevitable with inflation shaping the election. Tragically though, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris just never managed to find a way to assure the public that things would improve. To start with, Biden stated (albeit accurately) that the economy was in good shape, with inflation rates coming down, when he should have empathised with people struggling with grocery prices, which never came down or matched the average wage hike. When Kamala came to acknowledge this struggle, it was all too late. Trump had swept up the disenfranchised who believed his rule had contributed to a more prosperous times (with Obama missing out on credit).

This was always going to be Kamala’s greatest struggle (besides interviews). She had relatively little time to make up the ground Trump had in the swing states. But let’s face it: he was also just better at getting out there.

Lesson 4: Embrace New Media

Trump made great waves by appearing on long-form podcasts, such as Theo Von’s and Joe Rogan’s. This chiefly helped to consolidate the male vote but also showed he had nothing to hide and could hold up in a more relaxed, conversational environment. Similar to Hillary in 2016, Kamala played it too safe by (at first) limiting her media appearances and then by not following Trump in this vein.

In 2008, Obama became the first presidential candidate to really understand the internet and social media, taking advantage of it to propel himself to success. Well, social media has changed quite a bit since then and people are a lot more attuned to being “sold” something. Podcasts like these don’t rely on cheap chat show bits or celebrity cameos to entice someone. Apparently with the coaching aid of his son, Barron, Trump was able to tap into an aspect of online culture ignored previously in these election cycles. Given the uselessness of big news’ media outlets with polls, it might be worth re-examining where the pulse of this nation lies. (And yes, also stop with the celebrity endorsements. Per this point and the lesson above, they don’t connect you with the people.)

Lesson 5: Control the Outrage

The first few weeks of Trump’s first term were exhausting with multiple decrees garnering fresh cries of outrage from the Democrats and media. Clearly the controversies didn’t matter that much in the end. The simple thing about Trump that the Democrats have never been fully able to appreciate is that he’s a disruptor. Therein lies his appeal. He is a kind of antidote to traditional politics and corruption; albeit not a man who plays by the book.

Naturally, there’s going to be a lot to be outraged with over the next four years. Not everything will necessitate a battle. Two impeachments and multiple court cases didn’t eliminate Trump so it’ll be important to tackle him in a different way. Granted, I don’t know what that way is but since the Democrats have so far been playing a losing strategy, it’s worth considering what’s worth their energy.

Conclusion

As Jon Stewart stated in his latest episode of The Daily Show a Democratic comeback is plausible. Reagan won every state but one in 1984 and Nixon trounced McGovern in 1972. The senate and house will always swing back and forth. Indeed, the history of the electorate is basically a game of ping-pong. As George HW Bush’s team put it, in analysing his defeat in 1992, “change is the only constant of politics”. So on and so forth. There’s hope there but to be frank, for at least a few years, the Democrats will have to contend with Republican power, will, and legislation; via the presidency, the house, the senate, the majority of governors, and the Supreme Court. So… good luck and take what you will from those lessons.

How Joe Biden Should Approach The Age Question

How Joe Biden Should Approach The Age Question

Depending on your source, an alleged 3/4 Americans have “concerns” about President Biden’s age (81), including 50% of Democrats. As the oldest president in American history, it was inevitable that this would become bait for opposition. After all, it’s easy and it’s sort of fair… just as a general observation of humanity and what old age does to people. Unlike in 2020 too, the Republicans now have years of press conferences and interviews to pick a part then cut back together as presentations and memes of cognitive decline. The Democratic establishment have held steady on their candidate but even with a slew of legal landslides coming against Trump, we can still see many sweating. This is why I’ve taken it upon myself to offer some practical advice for Biden’s team in how they respond to these criticisms because so far it’s not been great.

To offer some additional context here: at a press conference earlier this month, he angrily rebutted a journalist’s claims that these were valid concerns before going on to mix up Egypt and Mexico on another topic. He also recently mixed up the president of France with a former president, Francois Mitterrand, who died in 1996. So… not great. This week, he stopped by “Late Night with Seth Meyers” for what was a fairly softball interview. Seth asked about his age and while Biden was relatively strident in his response, he immediately began to offer comparisons between himself and the mad man, Donald J. Trump; in effect, saying “you know what’s old? Trump’s ideas”. Fair enough. The ideas are what are most important. But is that really the way to handle this? It’s a pivot which shows he’s not really capable of debunking the wider criticism of cognitive decline. It’s a pivot away from a question of character to one of policy. The kind of answer that irritates rather than impresses.

Biden simply needs to accept and address this question more gracefully. He can’t outrun it. So what I would propose is that he leans into it as Ronald Reagan so expertly did in 1984 against Walter Mondale: “I will not exploit for political purposes, my opponent’s youth and inexperience.” Now obviously, don’t say that verbatim; Trump’s already been president, but you get the gist. Employ a little humour. Hire some joke writers. Take control of the story. Then… as he’s already done, you can reiterate that while you are indeed old, your ideas are not. On top of that, you’ve got a great team behind you and have a successful term already behind you. A record you can exploit. And why not; with wisdom comes age. 

By trying to manipulate this narrative or avoid answering the question directly, Biden can be painted as distracted, if not delusional. While he’s always been prone to gaffes and the odd stutter however, part of his appeal lies in his kooky grandfather persona. Occasionally not with it but ultimately, empathetic and kind-hearted. He’s the nice candidate, where Trump’s the bullish blowhard. Having a president at 81 isn’t exactly anyone’s ideal situation but in a contest of character and policy, this should be a lot easier than it’s proven thus far. Sometimes you just have to take the card your dealt. With cost of living prices still proving problematic and crises abroad, you can’t convince the public that the economy or international security is strong but what you can do is reassure them that the right man is at the wheel.

One Year Out… Does Biden Still Look Good?

One Year Out… Does Biden Still Look Good?

To answer quite literally; yes, I think Joe Biden looks dashing for a man pushing 81… But the ellipsis begs the further question of how he will look when he’s 82- which he would be upon commencing his 2nd term in January 2025. Well…

Running the country is different from running for the presidency. If we were to chalk this up to the record, Biden would look quite good (at least with Democrats). He’s gotten the US out of Afghanistan, lowered drug costs, made a start on cancelling student debt, and passed an inflation-reduction act, to name a few things. But… those measures simply aren’t painting the larger picture, which is that of an old man struggling to load up a restaurant’s QR-code menu on his phone (I know, frustrating for all). He’s old news. Past it. Out to pasture. Bamboozled by the times. Pork chops for dinner. Why, he’s even older than the president who was elected 31 years ago. The man’s ancient. Now, wisdom is acquired and in theory, having an older leader is no bad thing. But at some point, perception trumps (sorry) reality and if the latest polls are anything to go by (39% approval; Trump supposedly leading in 5/6 swing states), Biden’s not looking like a promising prospect anymore.

Biden’s detractors and supporters both fear he will struggle in the debates. While he held his own reasonably well against Trump last time, he may struggle in 10 months. Trump’s only several years younger but he just doesn’t wear his age the same way. It’s like his ego has sustained him with an unnatural propensity for spewing entertaining nonsense. Sure, Biden can fact-check him but I’m inclined to agree with Dave Chapelle’s analysis that Trump comes across as an “honest liar”. He may not know what he’s talking about but he’s not playing to the weary cringe-inducing politic-speak Biden or Hillary indulge in. Plus, last time Trump was running, the pandemic was hampering his support. This time around, virtually nobody will care about that and Biden will have four years of political baggage to account for. Basically, he’ll be playing defence this time around. 

And the defence will likely be centred around his son; Hunter Biden. That’s a whole other kettle of fish but again, since perception trumps reality, and the Republicans have been beating this drum for years now, it’ll be tough for Biden to avoid this. Perhaps too, it stings his supporters to admit that this was newsworthy, even if slight against the plethora of lawsuits dogging Trump. To the vaguely uninformed, the messaged received is: there’s some dodgy stuff with Biden, some dodgy stuff with Trump, it’s a wash; we’re all in the swamp. And thanks to the preposterous level of subjectivity in news media today, it’s hard to put things back in perspective.

Outside of all this conjecture however, two issues may affect Biden’s rating in the next 12 months; foreign policy and inflation. Typically, the former doesn’t have as much of an impact on the average voter but foreign aid and support directed towards Ukraine and Israel may weigh something. Republicans have opposed Biden’s allocation of “too much in funds” for Ukraine while support amongst Democrats for Israel has decreased somewhat. Since these are contentious matters (also worthy of a lot more exploration), I won’t dig in deeper (or cast judgement), other than to say there is a tangible level of resentment directed at the government for taking this capital from home. This leads us to inflation.

Inflation actually peaked in June of last year at 9% and is now 3.7%, but in day-to-day life, prices are still rising on the likes of personal care products, groceries, restaurants, rent, and more. It’s also speculated that it won’t keel out until 2025, which will prove a major factor in the election. Even though it’s not totally in Biden’s control, the “buck ends” at the Oval Office (as foolishly accounted for by Harry Truman). While statistically wages are up and unemployment is down, inflation will make the largest impression on Biden. It takes time for the appropriate measures to lead to results; for example, the economy was on the mend in 1992 but hadn’t yet shown, affecting Bush Sr’s campaign. As with the “controversy everywhere” analysis aforementioned, it’s hard for people to know where to direct their anger but the Republicans will beat this drum as the Democrats play defence.

So, as Biden languishes in the polls, with the possibility of the Dark Lord’s return, many have suggested it might be time for someone else to step in and run in his place. This seems unlikely at this point but not without precedence. In March 1968, Lyndon Johnson announced he would not seek re-election, mostly owing to his lack of favourability with the Vietnam War. His VP, Hubert Humphries, went on to lose to Nixon later that year, though one of history’s great “what ifs” remains in if Robert Kennedy hadn’t been assassinated that summer. And you know what, we have Robert Kennedy’s son running as an independent this year, so a Trump v. RFK Jr v. Kamala Harris ticket could materialise. Maybe another Republican could clinch the nomination, especially if one of those lawsuits leads to something with Trump. Maybe Kamala somehow gets popular? Well, there’s a long stretch ahead still but as it stands, it looks to be a rematch in November 2024 and that’s… terrifying.