A Bridge Collapsed: The Biden Presidency

A Bridge Collapsed: The Biden Presidency

Had President Biden made the decision to withdraw from the 2024 race earlier, we might’ve been writing a much different story. Alas, his refusal to do so (in conjunction with his initial proposal that his presidency would mark a “bridge”- like transition to a new generation) will likely be the first thing people recount when asked about his legacy. As it stands, this legacy looks on the grim side of things; at least, according to a Gallup poll which showed 54% of Americans viewed him as a “below average” or “poor” leader. But… history has a way of changing perspectives and so in complete folly, we’re going to (already) try and take the longview in assessing this administration.

Well, it’s a bridge of some kind, albeit between two terms of Donald Trump. So assuming the historians hold true on their negative assessment of Trump’s tenure, they’re not going to be too pleased with Biden for enabling his comeback. Granted, a lot of that blame can be placed at the feet of top Democrat party heads too but the story of a fractured party, torn by generational and cultural values, doesn’t exactly help Biden’s case. Had a more effective coalition been built, there might’ve been proper competition for the MAGA crowd. Instead, this party floundered and yielded way for the return of a stronger Trump backing. 

Granted, some of this was beyond Biden or Trump’s control. The chaos of the pandemic, for instance, was always going to have severe economic repercussions and this came in the shape of a massive 9% inflation rate in 2022. Like Jimmy Carter or any other unfortunate president before him, Biden simply had to take the hand he was dealt. To his credit, he passed sweeping legislation such as the Inflation Reduction Act to tackle this but since prices never went down, the average person was unable to see the benefits of such actions. In actuality, the economy has improved, with record-low employment and a record amount of applications for new businesses. In the next couple of years, Trump will undoubtedly take credit for the changes in fortune as they manifest more clearly. Unfortunately, sound economic policies just can’t be waved as a flag until everyone has else got theirs.

For that matter, the major achievements of the Biden presidency, such as the CHIPS act, his supports of unions, and infrastructure bill seem to pale against the half-glass empty analyses, i.e. the revelation that there are still some ways to go. This will always be true with regards any measures taken by a sitting president (who can only face tough decisions). For example, while the “Plan B” proposals of his student-loan forgiveness scheme were withdrawn, he still managed to achieve $180 billion in loan forgiveness. 

And then there is foreign policy, where there are domestic differences to contend with. Given another era, there probably would’ve been a consensus in the US against Russia. In the 2020s however, there’s even a faction of Republicans who favour their former adversaries over the Democrats, complicating the funds appropriated for Ukraine’s defence. Biden has been steadfast in his support of NATO and a strong ally of Zelensky, but as Trump prepares to take office again, a question mark lingers over how this will resolve. With the Palestine-Israel war then, we have seen divided opinions in the US on an ethnic and generational level. This has marked a shift away from the broad support Israel was once guaranteed there, with critics of Biden’s (and continued US foreign policy) arguing he’s helped facilitate war crimes in the Gaza Strip, failing to ever hold Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government to account. Should the very recent ceasefire hold, Biden might be looked on with some deference eventually, though it’ll be eternally countered with questions of why he couldn’t have pushed for peace sooner. This will also likely go down as the most contentious foreign policy decision of any president since George W Bush. We’re also going to have to contend with speculation on whether the incoming Trump administration was a greater factor in allowing this to pass.

Whichever way you look at the Biden presidency, Donald Trump seems to hover over it at every turn. The return to “normalcy” or the goal of “restoring the soul of the nation” has either fallen flat or been dismissed as liberal hogwash. Trump has, in a sense, been legitimised this time around; by virtue of winning the popular vote and the Democrats’ own flawed power dynamics leading to their own downfall. And despite a relatively decent farewell address, one can’t help but roll their eyes when Biden warns against the abuse of power, weeks after pardoning his own son (who apparently was above the law). The problem remains that the top Democratic Party members appear too elitist, slow, and out of touch with the people. And for much of Biden’s term, that image was capitalised on, with every stutter and pause exemplified to the Republicans’ benefit. As it stands, the Democrats are weakened and down on their luck. Of course, they’ve been handed major defeats in the past and come back before but it’ll take a proper chance to mobilise their base next time; a new generation with some authenticity. If one thing can be learned from these last few years, whether with the election or Biden’s cognitive decline, it is that you can’t pull the wool over the people’s eyes forever.

One Year Out… Does Biden Still Look Good?

One Year Out… Does Biden Still Look Good?

To answer quite literally; yes, I think Joe Biden looks dashing for a man pushing 81… But the ellipsis begs the further question of how he will look when he’s 82- which he would be upon commencing his 2nd term in January 2025. Well…

Running the country is different from running for the presidency. If we were to chalk this up to the record, Biden would look quite good (at least with Democrats). He’s gotten the US out of Afghanistan, lowered drug costs, made a start on cancelling student debt, and passed an inflation-reduction act, to name a few things. But… those measures simply aren’t painting the larger picture, which is that of an old man struggling to load up a restaurant’s QR-code menu on his phone (I know, frustrating for all). He’s old news. Past it. Out to pasture. Bamboozled by the times. Pork chops for dinner. Why, he’s even older than the president who was elected 31 years ago. The man’s ancient. Now, wisdom is acquired and in theory, having an older leader is no bad thing. But at some point, perception trumps (sorry) reality and if the latest polls are anything to go by (39% approval; Trump supposedly leading in 5/6 swing states), Biden’s not looking like a promising prospect anymore.

Biden’s detractors and supporters both fear he will struggle in the debates. While he held his own reasonably well against Trump last time, he may struggle in 10 months. Trump’s only several years younger but he just doesn’t wear his age the same way. It’s like his ego has sustained him with an unnatural propensity for spewing entertaining nonsense. Sure, Biden can fact-check him but I’m inclined to agree with Dave Chapelle’s analysis that Trump comes across as an “honest liar”. He may not know what he’s talking about but he’s not playing to the weary cringe-inducing politic-speak Biden or Hillary indulge in. Plus, last time Trump was running, the pandemic was hampering his support. This time around, virtually nobody will care about that and Biden will have four years of political baggage to account for. Basically, he’ll be playing defence this time around. 

And the defence will likely be centred around his son; Hunter Biden. That’s a whole other kettle of fish but again, since perception trumps reality, and the Republicans have been beating this drum for years now, it’ll be tough for Biden to avoid this. Perhaps too, it stings his supporters to admit that this was newsworthy, even if slight against the plethora of lawsuits dogging Trump. To the vaguely uninformed, the messaged received is: there’s some dodgy stuff with Biden, some dodgy stuff with Trump, it’s a wash; we’re all in the swamp. And thanks to the preposterous level of subjectivity in news media today, it’s hard to put things back in perspective.

Outside of all this conjecture however, two issues may affect Biden’s rating in the next 12 months; foreign policy and inflation. Typically, the former doesn’t have as much of an impact on the average voter but foreign aid and support directed towards Ukraine and Israel may weigh something. Republicans have opposed Biden’s allocation of “too much in funds” for Ukraine while support amongst Democrats for Israel has decreased somewhat. Since these are contentious matters (also worthy of a lot more exploration), I won’t dig in deeper (or cast judgement), other than to say there is a tangible level of resentment directed at the government for taking this capital from home. This leads us to inflation.

Inflation actually peaked in June of last year at 9% and is now 3.7%, but in day-to-day life, prices are still rising on the likes of personal care products, groceries, restaurants, rent, and more. It’s also speculated that it won’t keel out until 2025, which will prove a major factor in the election. Even though it’s not totally in Biden’s control, the “buck ends” at the Oval Office (as foolishly accounted for by Harry Truman). While statistically wages are up and unemployment is down, inflation will make the largest impression on Biden. It takes time for the appropriate measures to lead to results; for example, the economy was on the mend in 1992 but hadn’t yet shown, affecting Bush Sr’s campaign. As with the “controversy everywhere” analysis aforementioned, it’s hard for people to know where to direct their anger but the Republicans will beat this drum as the Democrats play defence.

So, as Biden languishes in the polls, with the possibility of the Dark Lord’s return, many have suggested it might be time for someone else to step in and run in his place. This seems unlikely at this point but not without precedence. In March 1968, Lyndon Johnson announced he would not seek re-election, mostly owing to his lack of favourability with the Vietnam War. His VP, Hubert Humphries, went on to lose to Nixon later that year, though one of history’s great “what ifs” remains in if Robert Kennedy hadn’t been assassinated that summer. And you know what, we have Robert Kennedy’s son running as an independent this year, so a Trump v. RFK Jr v. Kamala Harris ticket could materialise. Maybe another Republican could clinch the nomination, especially if one of those lawsuits leads to something with Trump. Maybe Kamala somehow gets popular? Well, there’s a long stretch ahead still but as it stands, it looks to be a rematch in November 2024 and that’s… terrifying.

Trump Abroad: The WW Review

Trump Abroad: The WW Review

I imagine Trump is quite relieved that his 9-day stint in foreign policy is over. Most assuredly, his staff will be cajoling him with ‘true’ news reports that things went ‘just fabulously’ and that it won’t be necessary to head outside of the US any time soon. Now, some of the more cynical ‘thinkers’ of the World Wide Web might be positing that these trips were anything but great with either his hypocritical change of rhetoric being brought into question or else his general disinterest in world affairs. To be fair to the 70-year old year renegade however, he had to endure countless conversations with God-knows-how-many al-somethings in the Middle East whilst others sullied up the good name of Mar-a-Lago. Can’t we give him a break? Well, let’s look at how things went to begin with:

Stop One- Saudi Arabia

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It’s not the friendliest neighborhood and most presidents usually don’t choose it as their first foreign destination but you know Trump- straight to the grit! Of course, even he needed a little context for this one as Saudi Arabia has had a long and complicated relationship with the US. They’re the kind of bad-boy BF you know you should give up but they’re always there when you need them and with the goods (oil). Yes, it’s one of the most disappointing alliances the US has ever pursued but it doesn’t look to change anytime soon, despite slight withdrawals in recent times, including a $400 million arms deal last year (when it became apparent that these airstrikes in Yemen weren’t all that popular).

Not only have over 10,000 people been killed in these assaults in the last two years, but 17 million people are now facing starvation, according to the UN. On top of that, they consistently rank low in the Amnesty and Human Rights Watch reports on other matters like freedom of speech and women’s rights (though Ivanka did note they had made some progress, if you want to take her word for it). Even former US ambassador Robert Jordan (a Bush II appointee) remarked how the ‘humanitarian’ aspects of this conflict were being outright ‘ignored.’ Heck, even Trump himself has criticized both the regime for its ‘harboring’ of the 9/11 terrorists and Obama for bowing to the Saudi King in 2012.

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There was this too…

So naturally, Trump brought in the reigns on his categorization of ‘Radical Islam’ (now ‘extremist ideology’), delivered an all-too diluted speech for his fervent supporters, accepted the Collar of Abdelaziz Saud from King Salmon, and capped it all off with a 10-year projected $350-billion arms agreement. In terms of his own campaign rhetoric, he therein delivered one of the most bamboozling if expected 180-degree turns in US history. On the other hand though, the Saudi press gave him and Melania glowing reviews. In the Trump book, this was therefore the best success ever achieved by a US president.

Stop Two- Israel

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Not one to take a rest, Trump followed up his trip to the ‘Middle East’ with Israel, which is of course situated in the Middle East (although the President can’t be expected to know everything now, can he?) Unlike his previous foray however, which involved directly selling out any possible remaining US moral values, this was more of an exercise in tip-toeing delicate grounds- that is the whole Israel-Palestine thing. You see, it only became apparent to Trump in recent weeks that this decades-long tension wasn’t all that easy to solve (after a ten minute explanation). So this was going to prove a real test of diplomacy. Did he succeed? Let’s it put it this way- it was the least pugnacious part of his 9-day tour.

First, there was the media blitz that resulted when Melania swatted his hand away like some annoying fly- injecting life back into the widely held belief that she does not love him at all. We’ll just let that hang there…

Then it was off to meet Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and visit the Western Wall in Jerusalem- without recognizing it as the capital. Pretty slick, right? Of course, this was a historic part of his venture as he became the first US president to actually go to this wall (though frankly he may just have a fascination with walls in general). He then visited the Holocaust Remembrance Center and left a less than eloquent note, akin to something you might find at Disneyland or in a year book: ‘It’s a great honor to be here with all my friends. So amazing and will never forget.’ Obama had written something far more eloquent back in 2008 about the great suffering endured all those years ago but he’s a bit of nerd at the best of times. Trump, unjustly hounded by the press at every opportunity, was merely expressing how awesome it was to have Tillerson and crew along.

It was in his speech that US foreign policy came to the forefront most clearly however and by clearly, I mean ‘vaguely’, as picked up by reporters on site. While reiterating their commitment to regional peace, he managed to avoid the question of recognizing Palestinian statehood and the possibility of an embassy move to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv (a campaign promise.) This meant that things, more or less, remained the same upon exit for his next stumbling block.

Stop Three- Europe

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‘He’s something’ Trump said of the Pope, ever the linguist. Now, most of you have probably already determined that this meeting was exceptionally awkward. Exceptionally… Anyways, the two held a 30-minute 1-on-1 meeting in which issues such as Climate Change and terrorism were discussed. The former would haunt Trump the last few days of this sordid tour but the latter is perhaps one of his favorites. These two men naturally must have disagreed, given their polarizing alliances to God and the Devil, but they were nevertheless able to pose for a picture which speaks more words than any review ever could.

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Melania, for some reason, decided to come dressed as the Woman in Black.

It was then on to the G7 Summit, the highlight of this entire trip. Again, there were the awkward faux pas- be it shoving aside other world leaders to get the front for a photo-op or engaging French President Macron in another one of those aggressive Smackdown handshakes. There was also the speech he delivered in which he chastised a majority of NATO countries for not investing enough of their GDP in defense, which he believed made them over-reliant on US military might. Where the real difficulty was always going to lie however was in Trump’s stance on the Paris Climate Accords, committed to under President Obama in December 2015. Long story short, he said he’d make up his mind sometime this coming week. The other world leaders were left in dubious doubt however, with German Chancellor Merkel eluding to the notion that Europe would have to endure on its own and that Germany could no longer ‘rely’ on Trump’s America. Upon departure, Trump told US naval sailors in Sicily that the 9-days been a ‘home run’.

Homeward Bound

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The media largely focused their attention on what was ‘awkward’ during these visits but a few talking points arose between the many reports given: the downplay of his Islamophobic rhetoric; the ‘America First’ policy on display; the reaffirmation of Gulf alliances; the growing division in US-European alliances; and the fact that Trump is still finding his footing on the world stage. For some, it was a meager lightweight trip that amounted to very little we didn’t already know before. For others, it was a calming reminder that Trump can restrain himself at times. For most, it was a meme-centric carnival of diplomatic embarrassment, the likes of which we will never see again until his next foreign escapade or Twitter-bowel-movement-tirade.