Do The People Want An Interventionist America?

Do The People Want An Interventionist America?

President Joe Biden has issued some major economic sanctions against Russia in the midst of the ongoing invasion of Ukraine. These measures have largely been supported by the public, both in America and across the world, as strong displays of condemnation, without taking the next dire step. The question arises everyday then: will such a step be taken? If we consider the trajectory of America’s recent interventionist past, I would say it’s unlikely. (Of course, such postulation may be emboldening Putin so there’s a caveat to consider there.)

Anyways, to take the first view, let’s look back at Syria in 2013. Obama was concerned that if the US didn’t intervene, it would undercut the severity of chemical weapons’ usage there. Rather than go in all-guns blazing like his predecessor had with Iraq though, he instead went to the Capitol to seek approval. It was determined America wouldn’t intervene. Years later, a divide remains over whether they should have with a Guardian piece in 2018 entitled “The Epic Failure Of Our Age: How The West Let Down Syria”. I mention this, not to weigh in on any specific view, but to show that it’s not always clear-cut when, where, and why America should intervene.

Had Syria’s crisis come ten or twenty years before, America may very well have sought a different approach. As it happened, George W. Bush had led the nation into two costly wars in 2002-3 with Afghanistan and Iraq. We know all about how those went but it’s interesting to consider that at the beginning, support for the Afghanistan War was close to unanimous (90% according to Gallup). Iraq wasn’t ever quite as popular but it got a whole lot less so in the following years. But what if it hadn’t gone so wrong? Yes, I understand and completely agree that the invasion of Iraq was wrong from the get-go but in the eyes of the American public, what if there had been less casualties and more success associated with it? Like with the Gulf War a decade before?

George H.W. Bush sent the military in to liberate Kuwait from an Iraqi invasion. It was a quick, bold, and decisive victory that skyrocketed his approval ratings to 90%. The mission was complete but a lot of his supporters felt he should have gone further (into Iraq) and removed the problem of Saddam Hussein there and then. He declined, though years later (under the auspices of the War on Terror), his son determined America could not hold its head high while Saddam continued to violate international laws (and maybe have nuclear weapons???) Perhaps, an invasion in the early 90s would have gone just as poorly, even with the senior Bush proving a formidable foreign policy strategist. Indeed, his interventions in Panama and Somalia (while contested and dubious to many) were well planned out and successful. Well…

With regards Somalia (which began just after Bush had lost election), the people were initially thankful for his swift intervention. His record would then turn out positively when Bill Clinton took over and Somalia descended into chaos (with Black Hawk Down and more). Bush didn’t have to deal with the eventualities such interventions can bring, where Clinton was faced with an uphill battle he hadn’t even sought. The rest of his presidency would be tested on the question of when American intervention should and shouldn’t occur with critics (and himself, later on) citing a late entry to Rwanda and Bosnia as unfortunate, if not shameful, chapters in history.

In 1996, Eric Carson wrote a piece for the Rand Organisation entitled “Public Support For US Military Operations” exploring the factors that restrained presidents, in this sphere. Having come out of the Cold War just a few years ago, America had entered a “more confusing world” where the objective wasn’t always clear as had been with something like World War 2 (where people acknowledged the gravity of the situation). Further to that, political divisions or disagreements were having a knock-on effect on public perception. To bring this back to the present, we can see the potential of this political divide crinkling American support for a “next step” as many Republicans weren’t long ago flaunting a “rather be Russian than Democrat” motto.

Public support is essential when a president has a paper-thin political majority or faces contentions. This is another reason why I feel a strong intervention from the US is less likely today than it was years ago. After 9/11, George W. Bush had the nation’s support, even if he would quickly squander it. Back in World War 2, Franklin D. Roosevelt was a president in his third term. Even though Truman’s reputation would for years be bashed by the Korean War, there was still general support for a policy of Communist Containment.

Vietnam, the follow-up to Korea, truly took on its perception as an abject failure when the public started seeing what was going on through the medium of television. With public marches and demonstrations, bolstered by the counter-cultural movement, a new picture of American interventionism and soldiers themselves (quite harshly) was ingrained in the public’s psyche. What if Vietnam had happened ten years before, however? Well, as already mentioned, Korea was a contentious affair, though the South remained free of Russian influence but it is reasonable to assert it wouldn’t have been as unpopular or ended in quite the fashion it had, heavily influencing an election cycle.

Is it bleak to conclude that Americans will support American intervention then only if success is assured? It seems to be the case though such luxuries are never realistically afforded them. Popular support, as a result of today’s media, rancour in politics, and recent dubious interventions, has become nigh-on impossible. The best a president can do, in this age, is justify the chances of success should an intervention occur, answer how the nation is a threat to US interest, exert all means of diplomacy, and run the usual course of air strikes. Though as much as history has taught us how any conflict resolves in the public’s imagination, it is also worth remembering how easily people forget history. In a 2019, YouGov poll, the people were vary much split on whether the Gulf War was justified, for example. So as an addendum, one must note that we can’t even assume a clear or factual basis for public perception when such crises arise.

Collusion & Shit Storms: Trump’s 2018 In Summary

Collusion & Shit Storms: Trump’s 2018 In Summary

At the Washington Walrus, we recognize that it can sometimes be difficult to keep up with the latest in baffling tweets, nonsensical decisions, and eh… “reverse psychology” employed by the Trump Administration. One story may change from one end of the day to the next. So, we thought, it’d be handy to save you the hassle of sorting through this all and give you the main talking points that dominated this presidency in 2018 (year 2) with some colorful commentary.

January

  • Fire and Fury is released. Although Michael Wolff’s first-hand account is un-sourced and speculative, it manages to grind Trump’s gears immediately. Mike Pence, who believes gays can be cured with shock therapy, decries it as a “work of fiction.” Later on this year, his family will release a book about his rabbit, Marlon Bundo.

    marlon bundo
    The Pence’s book was met with John Oliver’s rival companion, A Day in The Life of Marlon Bundo, which told the story of a gay rabbit.
  • Trump presents the “Fake News Awards” via Twitter. The New York Times and CNN dominate the evening.
  • Government Shutdown 1/3- this time over government funding.

February

  • Government Shutdown 2/3- over funding again. Eventually, things clear and a budget proposal is launched with major tax cuts for the rich.
  • Former Trump lawyer, Michael Cohen, starts facing a tough year when he acknowledges payment (on his own behalf) to Stormy Daniels in 2016.

March

  • Trump fires Rex Tillerson and hires former CIA director, Mike Pompeo, as new Secretary of State. Gina Haspel takes over his role meanwhile.
  • Trump, against advice, calls Putin to congratulate him on his re-election.
  • White House issues memorandum on Mattis’ military policies to the effect that they support disqualifying transgender people from military service.

April

  • Increased scrutiny on Stormy Daniels’ affair. She files a lawsuit on claims Trump’s made.

May

  • Ends temporary protected status for Hondurans.

June

  • Department of Homeland Security reveals that between April 19 and May 31, nearly 2,000 children were separated from adults at the Mexican border. Trump tries to blame others, including Democrats for what easily ranks in his top 3 evil policies to date.
  • Describes Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, as “very dishonest and meek” after G7 summit.

July

  • Scott Pruitt resigns as EPA head.
  • Robert Mueller indicts 12 Russian intelligence officers over hacking Democratic emails.
  • Trump advises Theresa May to sue the EU over Brexit negotiations. It’s quite a month for him.
  • Trump and Putin meet at a summit in Helsinki. Trump states he knows no reason why Russia would’ve interfered in the 2016 election. Putin gives Trump a football as a present. Trump throws it to Melania, saying it’ll be a present for Barron. The world watches stunned.

    President Trump And President Putin Hold A Joint Press Conference After Summit
    Perhaps the most shocking moment witnessed on live TV since Janet Jackson’s nip-slip at the 2004 Superbowl.
  • Iran’s President, having said a war between the US and Iran would be the “mother of all wars” is hit with Trump’s latest constipation tweet: “To Iranian President Rouhani: NEVER, EVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES AGAIN OR YOU WILL SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE. WE ARE NO LONGER A COUNTRY THAT WILL STAND FOR YOUR DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE & DEATH. BE CAUTIOUS!” It was all caps, so you know he means business.
  • Cohen claims Trump knew of June 2016 meeting in Trump Tower between campaign officials and Russian lobbyists promising “dirt” on Clinton.

August

  • Press Secretary, Sarah H. Sanders calls the press the “enemy of the people”.
  • Manafort and Cohen are both found guilty of 5 counts of tax evasion.
  • Trump says in an interview with Fox that if he was to be impeached, the market would most surely crash. He’s taken a lot of credit for the economy this year.

September

  • The Senate Confirmation hearings begin for Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, Brett Kavanaugh. This lasts through to October. We learn he likes beer and studiously marks his calendars.

    Lista-The-Tears-of-Brett-Kavanaugh
    “I like beer!” The impassioned plea of a former frat boy and Supreme Court Justice. He also has the Ronald Reagan hair-do going on.
  • Trump claims before the UN General Assembly that his administration has, in less than 2 years, accomplished more than “almost any other” in history. They laugh at him. Trump says he wasn’t expecting that reaction but that it’s okay. It’s not really though, is it?

October

  • Kavanaugh’s confirmation by a hefty 51-49 affirms for many that the #metoo movement still faces limits.
  • Trump campaigns in anticipation of the mid-term elections.

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    A campaign rally for Trump supporters.

November

  • Jeff Sessions resigns and is replaced by Matthew Whitaker.
  • Trump fails to attend a WW1 memorial ceremony in Paris with other world leaders due to weather.
  • Despite expressing concerns over the disappearance of journalist Khashoggi, Trump declares loyalty to Saudi Arabia.
  • Defends Ivanka’s use of private email.
  • Cohen pleads guilty to lying to Congress over Mueller/Russia investigation.

December

  • George H.W. Bush’s funeral reminds us that the president doesn’t have to be a villain. Not by virtue of Trump however. He looks strikingly out of place.
  • Cohen sentenced to 3 years for tax evasion, violation of campaign finance laws, and deceiving banks and Congress.
  • Secretary of Defense, Jim Mattis, resigns, after Trump tweets that troops will return home from Syria with victory over ISIS being assured.
  • Government Shutdown 3/3 over funding for the Border Wall.

    pelositrumpap_hdv
    Pelosi and Schumer (not pictured) has a meeting before the press with Trump. It went supremely well. Meanwhile, Pence contemplates the possibilities of a Marlon Bundo movie.

 

And there you have it! Quite a year, huh? Of course, this only scratches the surface. There was also the beginning of a trade war with China and many other resignations/firings. Or how about that meeting with Kim Jong Un? Yes, even though it was one year, a lot happened but what seemed to dominate thematically and quite literally were:

  1. Trump and his team’s lies unfurling under the weight of the exhaustive Mueller investigation.
  2. Trump’s sense of indignation and hostility growing exponentially with any who disagreed with him.
  3. Trump’s needs for appraisal at any cost- be it by others lying to him or by him lying to others about things he has (but hasn’t actually) accomplished.

These themes will probably course over into 2019, a year in which the stakes will undoubtedly be amplified considering the momentum of Mueller’s investigation and the fact that the Democrats will take lead in the House of Representatives. But will it be an easy road for liberals then? Or will Trump’s base fight back, feeling the victims of persecution in both a political and cultural war? And what can Trump do/say to shock us at this point. Well, here’s a few things for 2019 we predict:

  • The “Fake News Awards” become an actual 3-hour long televised event on Fox with in-memoriam slides for celebrities Trump feels were wrongly accused of sexual misconduct.
  • Trump tweets spoilers for the Game of Thrones’ finale having gotten Eric to secure a copy. Eric, meanwhile, feels he has done his father proud and gets a gold star.
  • Attacks nations that don’t pay their dues on the international stage, like Wakanda, which he mistakes for a real country. Marvel play ball.
  • Promotes Barron to an advisory role. Eric looks on with jealousy.
  • Delays the 2020 election on account of “important things” needing taken care of first. Democrats, gridlocked on the issue of whether Harry Potter promoted a diverse-enough school experience, fail to challenge him on this.
  • Claims the wall has been built but is invisible. It’s best not tested though because while it will not prevent you crossing as such, it will inflict a terrible curse on you and your family.